Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Cost of Ukraine war a grim tally
Casualty, refugee figures, economic toll paint a dark picture
GENEVA — Quantifying the toll of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains an elusive goal a year into the conflict.
Estimates of the casualties, refugees and economic fallout from the war produce an incomplete picture of the deaths and suffering. Precise figures may never emerge for some of the categories international organizations are attempting to track.
U. N. human- rights experts count civilians killed and wounded, but know their tally falls significantly short. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has provided an updated accounting of their troop losses.
Even the scope of the weaponry that Western countries have sent Ukraine is murky.
THE EVOLUTION OF AN INVASION
Roughly 5,000 missile strikes, 3,500 airstrikes and 1,000 drone strikes were launched by Russian troops against Ukraine over the past year, according to Brig. Gen. Oleksiy Hromov, a senior official in the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
As of Thursday, 18% of Ukrainian land is controlled by Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank. That’s down from 27% on March 23, before Ukrainian counteroffensives recaptured vast swaths of land — but up from the 7% held by Russia and Russia-aligned separatists before Feb. 24, 2022, as part of an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea that year.
Some 71,905 potential Russian war crimes — killings, kidnappings, indiscriminate bombings and sexual assaults — are under investigation by Ukraine’s prosecutor-general. Reporting by The Associated Press and “Frontline,” recorded in a public database, has independently verified 639 incidents that appear to violate the laws of war.
THE CASUALTIES
Through Feb. 15, 8,006 civilian deaths have been confirmed in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, through Feb. 15, according to the U.N. human-rights office. The office uses strict methodology and says verification of thousands of reported casualties is still pending in Russian-occupied cities such as Mariupol, Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.
For March 2022, 3,382 civilian deaths in Ukraine were recorded by the U.N. rights office — the highest number for a single month of the war.
According to the U. N., 13,287 civilians were injured in the conflict over the past year.
In Russia’s most recent count, from September, 5,937 of its troops were killed in Ukraine since February 2022.
About 200,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded, according to a Western Estimate. Britain’s Ministry of Defense has estimated 40,000-60,000 Russian troops have died fighting in Ukraine.
In Ukraine’s most recent count of its troops losses since the invasion provided in August by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, 9,000 troops have died.
More than 100,000 of Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded, according to estimates by Western officials.
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PEOPLE
Based on figures provided by national governments, 8.1 million refugees fled Ukraine after the Russian invasion. The number includes more than 5.2 million in over 40 European and central Asian countries, including nearly 1.6 million in Poland, over 880,000 in Germany and nearly 2.9 million who went to Russia, according to the U.N. refugee agency.
According to a Jan. 23 count by the International Organization for Migration, 5.4 million people were driven from their homes but stayed inside Ukraine. The number of internally displaced people peaked in early May 2022, when the organization reported there were more than 8 million.
According to the latest International Organization for Migration figures, 5.6 million Ukrainians have returned to their homes, either from within Ukraine or abroad.
The U. N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that 17.6 million people in Ukraine need humanitarian aid.
ECONOMIC COST
According to the latest Kyiv School of Economics figure from Jan. 24, $138 billion in damage was caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure due to the war.
A 33% minimum drop in Ukraine’s gross domestic product in 2022 was expected by the International Monetary Fund. Final numbers are pending. The fund expected a 2.2% decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022.
The World Trade Organization reported that the value of Ukrainian exports in 2022 declined by 30%. It reported a 16% increase in the value of Russian exports in 2022.
It noted that the volume of Russian exports may have declined slightly, but the value was up because of price increases for fuels, fertilizers and cereals that Russia produces.
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
Last year, the U.S. Congress approved $113 billion in emergency funding for the Ukraine response.
It includes about $62 billion to be provided through the Defense Department, nearly half of it for weapons, training and other “direct security assistance,” and $46 billion through the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development, according to the Pentagon and an inter-departmental report issued last month.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the U.S. made $78 million in commitments directly to Ukraine over most of last year and through Jan. 15.
The Germany-based institute says its figure excludes funds that were over- reported, have gone unused, or actually go to Ukraine’s neighbors or to U.S. domestic programs. Its tally doesn’t include more recent U.S. pledges to Ukraine, such as for 31 M1 Abrams tanks.
European Union member nations and EU institutions have committed $59 billion to Ukraine, according to IFW Kiel.
Non-country donors, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have pledged and allocated $14 billion.
IFW Kiel estimates 50% of the aid disbursed as a percentage of commitments made by various donors.