Cold, crossovers could affect caucuses

DES MOINES — Donald Trump appears to be on course to cruise to a huge victory in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, but there are two variables that might complicate that forecast: the weather and the potential for Democratic and independent crossover voters.

As I write this, a polar vortex is dumping about a foot of snow across the state. The Iowa Department of Transportation and Des Moines police are telling people to stay off the roads. Trump and Nikki Haley have had to cancel or postpone events; Vivek Ramaswamy attempted to continue with his regular campaign schedule and compared himself to George Washington crossing the Delaware, before being forced to postpone an event in Coralville.

The roads will be plowed by Monday night, but intermittent snow is supposed to continue throughout the week, with perhaps two or three more inches Thursday and Friday. The forecast for Monday is a high of four degrees below zero Fahrenheit and a low of minus-12.

Iowans are hardy folk and used to bad weather in winter. But this year’s caucus night looks to be more than pretty darn cold, with potentially icy roads. The last time Republicans had a competitive race in Iowa, eight years ago, 27% of participants were 65 and older. With the polling making this year’s contest look like a Trump romp, maybe a portion of Iowa’s older Republicans won’t feel the need to get on the road and participate in the caucuses.

The second X factor is crossover votes from bored or mischievous Iowa Democrats.

Iowa Democrats are still holding caucuses, but they’re nothing like the consequential ones of past cycles. (You might recall that in 2020, Iowa Democrats couldn’t count the votes on caucus night and took three days to present results.) During their caucuses Monday, Iowa Democrats will deal with party business unrelated to picking a presidential nominee. Registered Democrats will vote for a nominee through a mail-in voting process that begins Jan. 12 and concludes on March 5, Super Tuesday. And with a menu that consists of President Biden, Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, no one expects much drama.

Only registered Republicans may participate in the GOP caucuses that convene Monday at 7 p.m. local time, and only in their designated home precincts. But that rule is less restrictive than it might seem at first glance; Iowans are allowed to register or change their party affiliation on caucus day, and anyone who will be 18 by the November general election may participate.

So, if you’re a Democrat, changing your party affiliation on caucus day and voting for the Republican you prefer in 2024 might sound like a more worthwhile way to spend your Monday night than selecting delegates to your party’s county convention. In 2016, 20% of Republican caucus-goers told the entry poll they identified as independents and 2% identified as Democrats.

Maybe some Democrats think Trump would be the easiest Republican to beat and will choose to support him. Or they might want to vote to stop Trump before November and choose Ron DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Chris Christie or even Asa Hutchinson, who is still plugging away with campaign events in a pizzeria in Decorah and a barbecue joint in Ames.

There’s a slim chance for a surprise Monday night. But if the final results align with the polling, Trump will win and DeSantis and Haley will be a distant second and third. And then the Florida governor will face a decision. If he can’t win in a state where he visited all 99 counties, was endorsed by Gov. Kim Reynolds and spent a small fortune on advertising, where can he?