Trump faces challenges

Support from 2016 doesn’t exist anymore

In 2016, many people voted for Trump because they thought he was a wealthy businessman. By 2020, well-informed voters had learned almost every business success he achieved was due to the millions he inherited from his father or from selling his father’s properties. They and other knowledgeable voters had also learned about his four bankruptcies; his inability to obtain loans from any U.S. bank; and the unwillingness of others to do business with him.

In short, by the 2020 election, many of those who in 2016 voted for the person they saw on “The Apprentice” had come to realize Donald Trump was a very different person than the one portrayed in the heavily edited TV program.

This year, he will run as a politician whose performance as president caused 7 million more people to vote for his 78-year-old opponent (who in 2020 received what Trump in 2016 labeled an “overwhelming majority” when the Electoral College tilted his way). Subsequent analyses of Trump’s 2020 defeat revealed an early sign of his declining support among Republicans: He lost the presidential vote in states where other Republican candidates running for state offices won. In 2022, his continued slide in influence and support was shown when virtually every candidate he endorsed was defeated. Since his defeat, his major focus has been to repeatedly claim he won the 2020 election, not to articulate policy changes. Facing 91 felony counts involving six cases across two states and two federal districts and his failure to debate his challengers has contributed to his failure to attract new supporters while he continues to lose some of his 2016 and 2020 voters.

Another factor diminishing the likelihood of his winning in 2024 is the loss of older Republican voters who don’t approve of the changes Trump has made to the Republican Party they and their parents belonged to. It is clear to them that the current Republican Congress is split between MAGA Trump loyalists whose every action is determined by Trump (or what they believe he would want them to do) and more moderate members who were elected because of their more traditional Republican beliefs and values. Non-MAGA Republicans know that to avoid being publicly criticized, receiving threatening messages or being “primaried” by a Trump loyalist, they must remain silent and vote as directed on topics (abortion, gun safety) that do not reflect the desires of their electorate.

A major result of this split within the party is a failure of the slim Republican majority in the House to even develop proposed policies that will improve the lives of the low- and middle-income white, male, rural voters who constitute their major support base. Another consequence is their inability to list accomplishments since 2020 that could be used as a basis for asking their previous voters to support them in 2024.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party has no difficulty pointing to dozens of bills passed by the previous 2018-20 Democratic House majority that were never allowed a vote by loyalist Trump MAGA Senate members who knew a recorded vote could be used against them. Many of these never-voted-on bills contained changes in policies that benefited all but the wealthiest Republican voters.

Democrats will also delight in pointing to legislative proposals by the Democratic minority in the current House that, even though they would have been supported by Republican voters, were not approved for debate, much less votes, by the Republican House speaker.

While it is foolish to even guess about the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, I am willing to hazard predictions about three events that will influence the election results and their aftermath.

One, almost all MAGA Party primary winners who endorse Trump’s lies about the 2020 election will lose their general election to a moderate Democratic opponent.

Two, a surprising number of seniors who have usually voted Republican will either not vote or vote for Biden because they have grave concerns about the future of the country if Trump and his minions are in charge. Others are simply tired of hearing his name every time they turn on their TV or radio, and want to do what they can while they live to ensure their grandkids grow up in a democratic country governed by competent officials who support the rule of law, honor their oath of allegiance to the Constitution, don’t treat women as second-class citizens, are willing to work with members of the other party to pass bipartisan legislation, and who actively support combating global warming.

Three, a Trump loss will hasten the day when he no longer dominates the news! Hallelujah!