Opportunities for both parties

The Florida Rights Restoration Commission, the Orlando-based group behind the passage of Amendment 4, was careful to stress that the population of nonviolent felons affected by the amendment was multiracial and crossed party lines — especially since the measure needed Republican votes to reach the needed 60 percent threshold to pass.

While the exact breakdown of the entire felon population was unclear, whites made up about 46 percent of all state inmates released in 2016-17, blacks about 43 percent, and Hispanics about 11 percent, according to the Department of Corrections, numbers similar to previous years.

“To its credit, the Republican Party didn’t come out against this,” said Allison DeFoor, founding chair of the Project on Accountable Justice at Florida State University. “The bottom line is it was the right thing to do.”

DeFoor said studies have shown that felons who have been granted clemency in the past were statistically more likely to register as independents. The requirement in the amendment to pay back all fines and restitutions also has an effect, he said.

“The historical evidence suggests — there’s not a lot of evidence, but it’s all we’ve got — that it slightly favors Republicans among people who’ve fit this model in the past in Florida,” DeFoor said. “Both parties have a real opportunity here. It’s kind of like a swearing-in [of new citizens] at a courthouse.”

Neil Volz, a Republican and the FRRC’s political director, is a felon himself after having pleaded guilty in a pay-to-play scandal involving his former boss, former U.S. Rep. Bob Ney.

He said the political impact will be more about issues, such as criminal justice, than any partisan swing.

“People impacted by the criminal justice system will have the opportunity to vote,” Volz said. “That issue affects all communities, and both parties have expressed interest in [reform].”

As for him, he said, when he finally walks in on Jan. 8 and registers, “it’ll feel like I’m taking the lid off my ability to participate in my community. And I’ll be a full citizen.”