Will Oliva cave on Visit Florida?

State House speaker has vowed to defund tourism industry.

Two months ago, I offered to eat my words. Literally.

I said I’d deep fry and devour my column if House Speaker Jose Oliva kept his promise to defund Visit Florida.

Why did I do this?

Well, I mentioned deep frying because I’m originally from the Carolinas. Up there, we deep fry everything but our Bibles.

And I predicted Oliva would ultimately cave to tourism lobbyists who want your tax dollars because that’s what most all Florida politicians do — take orders from tourism.

It just seemed like a safe bet — like offering to streak naked around Lake Eola if unicorns invade Orlando or if Interstate 4 becomes a pleasant driving experience. None of that’s going to happen.

After all, we’ve seen this posturing before. The last House speaker, Richard Corcoran, also vowed to stop subsidizing tourism, calling it “corporate welfare.” He said tourism should pay for its own advertising — just like every other business.

Then Corcoran caved, like every politician before him, and Visit Florida got another $76 million.

So now it’s Oliva’s turn. He. too, has vowed to stick to conservative, free-market principles and turn off the taxpayer spigot.

I still think Oliva will cave. But he hasn’t yet … and the tourism bosses are starting to freak out.

Last week, they kicked their lobbying into high gear.

First, Gov. Ron DeSantis staged a press event in Tampa to talk about the importance of “investing in Florida’s tourism industry.”

Then, tourism promoters flooded Tallahassee, giving every legislator a little plastic cup of green slime.

Why? Well, Florida Politics reported each slime cup was topped with a sticker that said: “This is what potential visitors thought Florida’s waters were covered in. VISIT FLORIDA changed that.”

First of all, anyone who “thought” Florida’s waterways were covered in slime last year was right. They were. And not the cutesywootsy fake kind in plastic cups, but rather the toxicwoxic kind that killed animals and shut down communities.

Some states might want to clean up the toxic mess. Florida just wanted to make sure the tourists kept coming. We’re like Mayor Larry Vaughn in “Jaws.”

And now the theme parks and resorts want another $76 million to tell the world that the sun is still shining and the beaches are still open.

To put that amount in perspective, it’s more than

twice the $30 million Florida spends on its statewide treatment program for mentally ill defendants accused of serious crimes. (A program that traditionally has a waiting list.)

It’s more than three times what state spends on its consumer protection office to combat scammers and fraudsters.

Tourism interests claim every tax dollar given to them for advertising yields great returns. But their economic-impact studies are sometimes …um ... creative.

For instance, DeSantis cited a Visit Florida study that claims tourism “saves each Florida family more than $1,500 annually” in taxes.

I was curious about how they arrived at that number. Because Florida taxpayers also a lot catering to tourists — building roads and convention centers, paying for cops to patrol tourism corridors, and even providing welfare and housing subsidies to people who work in lowwage tourism jobs and can’t make ends meet.

So I studied the report. It turns out: To calculate the $1,500 tax break you supposedly

get, the Visit Florida economists simply didn’t include any of that.

Seriously, they just ignored the entire expense side of the revenue-expense equation.

Think of it like having house guests. If your guests brought you a $200 gift certificate as a housewarming gift, Visit Florida would say you benefited to the tune of $200. Fair enough.

But if you told Visit Florida economists that you also spent $150 on food and entertainment for your guests, they would say: “How nice. By our formula, you’re still up $200.”

There’s a cost to hosting 120 million people, and everyone knows it.

But even if everyone in Florida agrees that tourism is a net-positive for this state, the argument that tourism would collapse without subsidies is ridiculous. No one’s saying tourism can’t advertise. They’re saying the industry should just pay for the advertising itself …

Tourism already does this. And it’s the continued innovation of the industry that keeps people coming back. It’s Harry Potter,

Mickey Mouse, Star Wars and the latest beach resorts and cruise ships — not Visit Florida’s “Must Be the Sunshine” campaign or the $12 million taxpayers gave Emeril Lagasse to promote Florida restaurants … like Emeril’s,

That Emeril campaign was one of the many secret deals the media exposed in recent years. To Visit Florida’s credit, the agency has beefed up transparency after Corcoran insisted. But the tax dollars still flow.

Personally, I don’t like asking taxpayers to subsidize some for-profit industries and not others. But if we’re going to subsidize any, pick the high-wage ones.

Better yet, let every for-profit business pay its own marketing costs. That’s how a free-market system is supposed to work.

That’s what Oliva said last month. Maybe he’ll keep his word. Maybe he won’t cave. Maybe I’ll (gladly) eat my column.

And maybe you’ll see unicorns on your smooth commute down I-4.