Numbers show improvement signs
Despite drop in cases and hospitalizations, experts still cautious
As the number of COVID-19 cases decline and hospitalizations level off, Central Floridians want to know: Have we turned the coronavirus corner?
Not so fast, say experts, who encourage residents to “double down” on wearing masks and social distancing.
“I think it’s a little bit early to claim victory, especially with this virus,” said Dr. Brian Fisher, an infectious disease physician at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “…
This is not a 100-yard dash. This is a marathon … potentially even an ultra-marathon, where we’re committing to these efforts for long periods of time.”
Locally and statewide, numbers reached a peak by Mid-July, just a few weeks after the stay-at-home orders were lifted and shops and restaurants began opening their doors to more customers. In response, several counties issued mask mandates, bars were once again closed and local authorities began targeting businesses that violated coronavirus prevention measures.
Experts say the recent drop from that peak is a sign that simple preventive measures work.
“I think what that’s sharing with us is that people are listening. People are wearing their masks. More people are trying to be mindful about what behaviors they’re exhibiting in the community,” said Dr. Omayra Mansfield, chief medical officer for AdventHealth Apopka and WinterGarden hospitals. “If people weren’t doing these behaviors, we should have seen cases rise up.”
But as thousands of students head back to campuses this month, there’s the potential to erase any progress that has been made.
“I worry a little bit about returning to school as a county is just showing a decline,” said Fisher, who is also a collaborator for the
modeling project at PolicyLab. “I think counties where they’ve shown steady declines over weeks, even months and really driven the number of cases down to low, low numbers are the ones that are more likely to be able to return to school safely.”
Dr. Raul Pino, state health officer at the Florida Department of Health in Orange County, said the impact of school openings on the current COVID numbers “depends a lot on the number of children who go to school.”
“We’re hopeful that many of the parents will select and have the ability to have the school in distant learning, so that those that really need to be physically present, can be there and have a safe environment,” Pino said at a news briefing on Thursday.
Health officials are also keeping a close eye on deaths, which are still high. On Friday, 180 new fatalities were reported for a total of 7,927 Floridians who have died.
But overall deaths appear to be reaching a plateau and are expected to decline if the current trends continue. Deaths lag behind new cases by as much as a month.
Meanwhile, four-week projections for Central Florida counties have markedly improved, showing a downward trend in the number of new cases in the coming weeks, assuming that the public continues its social distancing practices.
Here are how the numbers have improved in Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties since midJuly.
The average number of new cases per day has dropped by nearly half, from 118 to 64 in Lake, from 738 to 308 in Orange, from 277 to 140 in Osceola and from 153 to 75 in Seminole.
The percentage of people who are testing positive for COVID-19 are also showing signs of slow decline.
The weekly positivity rate in Lake County has dropped from 8.4% in midJuly to 7.5%. In Osceola, the rate has dropped from 15.7% to 13.1% and in Seminole from 10% to 7.3%.
In Orange County, the weekly positivity rate has dropped 11.8% on July 18 to 7.5%.
“The encouraging news is that since Aug. 1, positivity rate has been below double digits,” said Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
The average number of hospitalizations is also declining, although Mansfield called it more of a plateau.
“In the last few days, we’ve maybe seen a blip down and a blip up, but generally speaking that averages out to [a] plateau,” said Mansfield during a Facebook Live briefing on Thursday.
She said although the numbers have come down from a peak a few weeks ago, they “haven’t dropped dramatically.”
“We would hope to see a further decrease if people continue to exhibit these good behaviors that we’re asking them to, but a lot of the burden of this is going to fall on our community to follow the best recommendations, and that does including wearing masks all the time,” said Mansfield.
Central Florida counties reported an average of 24% ICU bed availability and 23% hospital-bed availability on Friday morning, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration. The region has not run out of ICU or general hospital beds during the pandemic.
When asked to sum up the current state of pandemic in Central Florida, Pino said, “We continue to be in a positive direction.”