Can Mayor Jerry Demings drive transportation-tax plan home?

In about seven months, Orange County voters might be asked to green-light a multi-billion overhaul of the county’s roads and transit system, funded by a one-cent increase in the county’s sales tax.

But before County Commission members put that question on the ballot, they must secure the approval of an even tougher audience: Themselves.

Right now, that may be the most baffling element of the sales-tax push. The County Commission still hasn’t given it a formal go-ahead, though County Mayor Jerry Demings and county staff have been barnstorming the county in a rapid-fire series of public forums intended to drum up support. A commission vote is scheduled for April 26, but following a briefing Tuesday (that was anything but brief ) several commissioners made it clear they weren’t 100% sold.

That means Demings doesn’t have seven months to drive home the merits of this plan. He has one. To get this measure on the ballot, he will have to make that one month count.

He — along with area transit officials, city leaders and key county staff, who have thrown themselves heart and soul into a comprehensive public-information campaign packed with compelling data — deserve the chance to make their case. But there’s a long way to go, and a short time to get there.

The need is clear

Demings’ proposal would bump Orange County’s 6.5% sales tax to 7.5%, generating about $600 million a year. Proceeds would be divided between roads (both maintenance and expansion) and public transit, including the Lynx bus system and SunRail. Ten percent of the tax revenues would be distributed to projects identified by city leaders.

Demings debuted the idea in early 2019, at his first state of the county address. Then COVID struck, and county officials wisely put the campaign on hold. The revamped proposal has been tweaked, but many elements remain the same.

And the mayor definitely starts on solid ground. Many of Orange County’s main roads are traffic-sodden messes for at least part of the day, and things are only getting worse. Meanwhile, local residents who rely on Lynx and SunRail often spend hours traveling distances that would take less than 15 minutes in a car. County officials highlighted one statistic that’s particularly startling: According to a census-driven affordability index, Orange County households spend about 25 percent of their household income on transportation.

That puts many of the low-income workers who toil in theme parks, nursing homes, restaurants, retail outlets and hotels in a vicious bind. The rising cost of housing pushes low-income workers into more affordable neighborhoods, often further from their workplaces. But longer commutes and rising gas prices mean that many Central Florida households are suffering in ways that aren’t as easy to detect. For the workers who toil 50-60 hours a week at two or more jobs, the burden is particularly heavy — yet they can least afford the time investment required to use public transit.

They need help. The greater

Central Florida economy also needs a better, more modern transportation network to thrive. Patchwork solutions are unlikely to make up for decades of under-planning for roads and transit. County staff and consultants have amassed a virtual mountain of evidence supporting Orange County’s need to invest in transportation.

Demings clearly believes that the sales tax is the only funding source adequate for the transformation Orange County needs. He offers two more compelling arguments to support that argument: First, half of this revenue would come from people who don’t live in the county — mostly tourists. Second, an adequate, reliable source of funding would strengthen Orange County’s ability to claim billions of dollars in state and federal matching funds.

Neither of these points — the obvious need, and the benefits of a sales surtax — are hard sells. At recent hearings, the sales tax has also attracted support from many who see an opportunity for expanded bicycle and pedestrian access, another clear need in a community that’s rated one of the most dangerous for bikers and walkers.

So far, so good.

Roadblocks ahead

So why isn’t this proposal getting enthusiastic support from members of the commission, and the community? Demings seems baffled by that question.

He shouldn’t be. Critics of this proposal aren’t just being obstructionist. They are laying out problems that must be addressed before they can vote for a sales tax — or even approve it for the ballot.

Among the most significant challenges:

Why aren’t developers shouldering more of this burden?

This question is particularly potent among Orange County residents who have lived here for decades. They’ve watched housing developments and strip malls devouring wilderness, sending thousands of cars streaming onto roads that can’t handle the capacity. It’s one of the toughest challenges, because the county can’t correct mistakes made in the past. But Demings and others must convince people that this new flush of cash won’t pave the way for more suburban sprawl.

Will the county make good on its promises?

This plan proposes to lavish billions of dollars on transit systems, something most commissioners (and a good number of voters) clearly support. But those improvements benefit people who aren’t represented by consultants and attorneys — and Orange County residents have already watched commissioners bend to the wishes of powerful interests, such as the 2019 decision to spend $125 million on a Kirkman Road extension to serve Universal Studios’ new theme park. Voters might have more confidence if the county were able to include ballot language that clearly obligated future commissions to fund mass transit. Unfortunately, a recent Florida Supreme Court ruling undercuts voters’ ability to dictate how sales-tax revenue will be spent, so again, the burden is on sales-tax proponents to gain voters’ trust.

Are there better ways to fund this?

One of the biggest objections to any sales-tax levy is that it’s regressive — in other words, it claims a larger percentage of low-income workers’ income. Many are eyeing Orange County’s tourist development tax, aka the “bed tax,” which was originally meant to be spent on promoting area attractions. As one of the top tourism destinations in the world, Orange County is obviously awash in a sea of tourist-tax dollars. County officials should push hard for flexibility to use that money for transportation even if it means demanding new laws. They should also take every opportunity to make sure that impact fees fairly reflect the cost of new development. And they should highlight their efforts to spread the burden.

Those are just a few of the challenges that could arise. County officials should also brace for organized opposition, including involvement from out-of-county groups that have helped defeat sales-tax proposals in other Florida communities.

It’s a lot to prove. But these challenges are already surfacing, and they will only get more strident as Election Day approaches. If Demings doesn’t convince commissioners that the county is prepared with the right answers, why would they take such a massive risk? It’s no small thing to ask voters caught in an inflationary economy to commit to hundreds of millions of funding per year, even if the need is obvious, or even desperate.