Analytics or gut instinct?
Coaches more willing to take fourth-down risk
Billy Napier developed a reputation while at Louisiana for his analytical approach. He brought those methods with him when he took the head coaching job at Florida.
Data has become an integral tool in Napier’s coaching toolbox and it’s helped drive his decision-making on and off the field, particularly in critical moments such as when to go for it on fourth down.
“A lot of analytics,” Napier explained. “And we don’t just use those on game day. We spend a ton of time in the offseason and we have done that for numerous years, and this is something we started a long time ago.
“It’s one that we spend time with a couple of different companies and lots of different opinions. We not only study our team, but we’re studying the other team and scenarios all across the country. Why do you go for it? When do you go for it? The key here is we’re using analytics to make those decisions.”
Louisiana went for it on fourth down 37 times last season — the 10th most among FBS programs — converting 59% (22). The Ragin’ Cajuns were among the top teams in 2020, going for it 25 times and converting 11 for 44%.
Coaches have long had a lovehate relationship when it comes to fourth down. Some take a more conservative approach, while others have become more aggressive.
Some rely on gut instincts and others turn to analytics to help form their decisions.
It’s that love affair with analytics that has led to a growing trend of coaches taking bigger risks on fourth downs.
According to the latest figures by the NCAA, Football Bowl
Subdivision teams went for it on fourth down 3,057 times last season, an increase of 10% from the entire previous season in 2019. The numbers have steadily increased since 2013 (2,465), a 24% bump.
Teams completed 53% of attempts in 2021, the second-highest rate next to last season’s 54.9%.
Ole Miss led the nation with 49 attempts, followed by South Alabama (46), Air Force (41), Army (41) and Memphis (38). During the past five seasons, Army (180) and Navy (171) have attempted the most fourth-down plays.
While facing a crucial fourthand-3 in the closing seconds of the 2019 Liberty Bowl, Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo faced a makeor-break decision. With the score tied at 17 and the Midshipmen at Kansas State’s 46-yard line with 15 seconds left, he could have followed conventional thinking and punted to settle for overtime.
Instead, the longtime coach rolled the dice, calling a rare pass by halfback CJ Williams to a wideopen Chance Warren for a 41-yard gain that set up the game-winning field goal.
“There was no analytics, and there was no coaching. We got lucky,” Niumatalolo said.
“All the service academies are more apt to go for it,” said Niumatalolo. “Many times, we’re playing for third-and-short or fourth-andshort and because it’s in our wheelhouse getting one or two yards, we’re probably more comfortable going for it.
“If it’s fourth and forever, we’re not going to go for it, but we have a lot of fourth-and-ones and twos, maybe up to three. Sometimes, I don’t even look at where we’re at on the field. I might take more chances if it’s fourth-and-short and we could be within our territory, but a lot of it has been feeling.”
The use of analytics isn’t a new trend in football, with coaches using data to predict outcomes. Teams have been using companies to collect and sift through millions of pieces of information to come up with these valuable projections.
Cade Massey, a professor at Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, has studied analytics and its impact on professional sports leagues, including the NFL. The idea of college football programs using analytics to make crucial decisions doesn’t surprise him.
“In the NFL, some teams have invested heavily in analytics now for 10 years,” said Massey. “The best of them have been building groups, multiple people, talking about this stuff, buying data and getting sophisticated.
“There aren’t many of them, but a handful have been doing it intensively for that long.”
Not all coaches are eager to dabble in analytics, at least not without some evidence to prove that it works. When Philadelphia won the Super Bowl LII in 2018, the Eagles were one of the few teams to use analytics, and it opened the door for more teams to start trusting the numbers.
Even some college programs began searching for a unique edge.
“The service academies know they have to do something different to compete,” said Massey. “So, you, as the underdogs, are always going to be more interested in these unconventional edges than the traditional powers. They know they have to do something different.”
“Many guys are using analytics to go for it more,” said Niumatalolo. “I’ve never really been an analytics guy all my years of doing this. A big part is a feel for the game.”