About the numbers
While he admits to shying away from analytics, Niumatalolo, 56, recently started to pay more attention to those numbers. His coaching counterpart at Air Force, Troy Calhoun, has fully embraced analytics, especially when it comes to fourth-down conversions.
“We study it. We study it diligently as far as yards to go, point of time during the game, and the score,” said Calhoun. “The other considerations are, ‘Do you feel like you’ve got a really good chance of making it, or if you don’t convert, what kind of position are you in?’
“Every piece of data we get, we’re certainly going to factor it in. Yet, at the same time, the game plan is a part of it and the game situation. So, it can’t be solely based upon only a book.”
The reason teams attempt to convert on fourth downs varies, with some willing to roll the dice for a chance to surprise their opponents.
“I know when we play teams that we’re a decided underdog — we’re a huge underdog, or when we play Notre Dame, I’m going to roll the dice against those guys,” said Niumatalolo. “I know they’re going to be hard to beat anyway, and I will play a lot more aggressively against them.”
For Calhoun, being aggressive on fourth down stems partially from controlling the number of possessions an opponent may have against you. According to his research, the more plays allowed opens the door for the defense to get tired more quickly.
“If you can extend a possession, then what you’ve done is reduce the number of possessions the opponent will have, and that’s a factor in what we do,” said Calhoun. “We’re a little different here because we don’t have redshirts, and we can’t take transfers. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to and our freshmen are coming straight out of basic training. So it’s a little bit of an adjustment here.”
The altitude in Colorado Springs, Colorado, where the Air Force Academy is located, also is a factor.
“Our kids live up here at over 7,000 feet and our stadium is nearly 6,700 feet above sea level,” said Calhoun. “We want to make this a stamina and endurance contest.”
Even then, coaches can sometimes get caught in the moment.
Niumatalolo recalls another moment in 2019 when he chose to ignore his gut and listen to others.
“There was one time when it was fourth-and-short on our own 19 and I didn’t think we should go for it, but one of our best linemen — a very aggressive guy said, ‘C’mon, coach. Let’s go for it. We can get it, and we can get it.’ I succumbed to him and I said, ‘Let’s go for it.’ We didn’t get it and I looked at him and I said, ‘I’m not listening to you again.’ ”
The reward sometimes outweighs the risk.
“There’s going to be a lot of times when the boobirds come out when we don’t get it and then there will be a lot of times when everybody will be standing up when the Gators convert and there will be a lot of smiles,” Napier said. “It comes with the territory.”