Hurricane center tracking four tropical systems with chances of becoming storms

The up.

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking four tropical systems, according to its 8 p.m. Saturday update.

First, a tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic has a 50 percent chance of forming into a depression or storm in the next five days and a 20 percent chance in the next two.

The tropical wave is moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands. Atlantic conditions are ripe for slow development next week as it pushes to the mid-Atlantic, the NHC said.

The second system is a trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean. It has a 20% chance to become a tropical system in the next five days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Third, is a system with shower activity about 600 miles east of Bermuda with a 10 percent chance of forming tropics are heating in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days. Finally, the hurricane center is monitoring a tropical wave that is emerging off the coast of Africa which has a 20% percent chance of forming in the next five days.

None of the systems are a threat to Florida at this time, but if any were to develop into a tropical storm, the first to do so would be named Danielle and the second would be Earl. The next two are Fiona and Gaston.

The 2022 hurricane season has been off to a surprising start, given the pre-season prediction of an above-average year in storm production by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. At the beginning of August, the NOAA reaffirmed its forecast calling for 14 to 21 named storms. An average year calls for 14 named storms.

The Atlantic hasn’t seen a named storm since the start of July and has only produced three named storms, all tropical storms. Typically, forecasters see the fourth named storm of the year emerge by or before Aug. 15 and the fifth named storm by Aug. 22, according to the NOAA’s records. Similarly, the first hurricane of the year typically emerges by Aug. 11.

Despite the low numbers so far, more potential systems are likely to form during what is now known as the peak of hurricane season, which runs from mid-August to mid-October.

najaramillo@orlandosentinel.com