Sept. 10 ‘peak’ date for hurricanes, but with slow season, can residents breathe easy?
Hurricane season has hit its peak, at least from a statistical standpoint.
Sept. 10 is known to meteorologists as the time of the year when the most tropical activity takes place in the Atlantic basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records. Generally speaking, mid-August to mid-October is prime time for tropical storms and hurricanes to spin into shape, but the 10th is usually when the most activity takes place.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center is watching two systems including Hurricane Earl, which at one point was forecast to become the season’s first major hurricane, but was stymied by wind shear and a trough of low pressure. Earl is now on track to become an extratropical storm.
Why is it normally busy this time of year? The Atlantic turns into a stew of tropical activity due to the lingering effects of the summer season heating the ocean waters to a hurricane-friendly 80-degree Fahrenheit temperature. The hot sea surface temperature serves as fuel for storms along with a lack of atmospheric wind activity, according to Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Maureen McCann.
“It tends to be more active, historically speaking, on Sept. 10 when waters have had time to heat up over the summer. The temperature threshold for water tends to be in the 80s. That’s one of the ingredients for producing tropical systems,” she said.
So far, the 2022 season has been off to a slower-than-average start. Typically, by Sept. 9 the Atlantic has observed nine named storms. As of Sept. 10, scientists have named five storms. Also, records show the Atlantic usually sees an average of three hurricanes by or before Sept. 7, this year has seen two with Danielle and Earl.
The low tropical numbers are striking compared to the NOAA’s preseason forecast that called for 14 to 21 named tropical storms. The NOAA reaffirmed its prediction at the start of August.
Despite the low turnout, McCann says now is not the time to lower your guard.
“We still have a long way to go before Nov. 30 (the end of hurricane season),” McCann said. “All it takes is one bad storm.”
This season might feel especially sluggish for residents casually paying attention due to the hyperactivity observed in the previous two years, both of which were record-breaking, storm-producing years. For context, the 2020 season, the busiest season on record, had 17 named storms by Sept. 10. The 2021 season, the third busiest recorded year, documented 13 named storms by the peak of the season.
Although tropical activity isn’t as busy as it was the previous two seasons, residents should still watch out for “the big one” as some of Florida’s most infamous storms occurred on or after the peak of season including 2005’s Wilma, 2016’s Matthew, and 2018’s Michael.
Additionally, there was also Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in Florida on Sept. 10 five years ago. The storm made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 major hurricane where it ravaged the area with flood waters. It made a second landfall in Marco Island before traveling up the Gulf
Coast to Tampa and eventually over Orlando as a Category 1 storm.
There were seven direct deaths in Florida from Hurricane Irma, however, the NOAA recorded 80 indirect deaths as a result of falls during preparations for Irma’s approach, vehicle accidents, carbon monoxide poisoning from generators, chainsaw accidents and electrocutions. There were also 14 seniors who died because of overheating when air conditioners failed after power outages. However, while these deaths are treated as “indirect deaths,” these are the only hurricane-related deaths Florida has labeled as “homicides,” state records show.
Additionally, Irma was responsible for huge Florida damages. At the peak of the power outages, 6.7 million people reported the loss of utilities, making it the largest statewide outage on record to date, including five Florida counties that experienced 100% outages, McCann wrote in an article for the Orlando Sentinel. In Osceola County, about 4,000 structures were damaged, totaling $100 million in repairs, the NOAA reported.
That report also noted that Irma caused $760 million in damages to southwest and central Florida orange groves. In unincorporated Orange County, Irma created close to 1 million cubic yards of trees, palm fronds, and other plant debris. Orlando estimated the cost of disposing its 274,000 cubic yards of vegetative debris at $13 million, said storm debris manager Mike Carroll, to the Orlando Sentinel.
Although it was five years ago, Irma’s memory serves as a lasting reminder of what the tropics can produce at the peak of season and before Nov. 30.
“You can’t let your guard down,” McCann said in reference to this year and its sluggish pace. “We always want people to be prepared. When it gets to this time of the year, you need to be ready to put your plan to action, not when a storm is already approaching. We still have quite a ways to go until Nov. 30.”