Emmy Awards
innie and my outie think it should be “Severance,” the winner will be “Succession.”
ELBER
Should win: “Severance” captures the zeitgeist of worker discontent, but let’s consider “Squid Game” and its take on soul-destroying poverty. It’s wholly original and, yes, gruesome. That didn’t hurt four-time winner “Game of Thrones.”
Will win: “Succession” won the last time it competed, in 2020, and the antics of the rich and scheming Roy family are as engrossing a peep show as ever.
COMEDY SERIES Nominees: “Abbott Elementary”; “Barry”; “Curb Your Enthusiasm”; “Hacks”; “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”; “Only Murders in the Building”; “Ted Lasso”; “What We Do in the Shadows.”
KENNEDY:
Should win: The mockumentary “Abbott Elementary,” a true workplace comedy in the vein of “The Office” or “Superstore.” How it is so specific to a group of underfunded teachers in Philadelphia and yet universal is the magic. Will win: “Only Murders in the Building,” an uncontroversial and uninspired choice, as safe as an Upper West Side doorman building. Who can look at Martin Short, Steve Martin and Selena Gomez and tell them they get no Emmy?
ELBER:
Should win: “Abbott Elementary” is the rare sitcom that clicked from the start, with its characters, stories and heart all in the right place.
Will win: “Abbott Elementary,” despite the odds against an old-school network entry winning against flashier cable and streaming rivals. It hasn’t happened since “Modern Family” won in 2014.
ACTRESS, DRAMA
Nominees: Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”; Laura Linney, “Ozark”; Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”; Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”; Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”; Zendaya, “Euphoria.”
KENNEDY:
Should win: Linney hasn’t won for “Ozark,” and she deserves it for going from dutiful wife to a cunning mastermind over the four seasons.
Will win: Oh, who richly deserves her first Emmy after four years of “Killing Eve.” Comer and Zendaya have their statuettes; TV academy voters will bid Oh goodbye with one, too.
ELBER:
Should win and will win: Versatile, long-admired actor Lynskey gets her first Emmy for her role as Shauna, who has umm, meaty secrets. Zendaya’s second win for her gutsy work in “Euphoria” is deserved, but voters favor change in this category.
ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES Nominees: Jason Bateman, “Ozark”; Brian Cox, “Succession”; Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”; Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”; Adam Scott, “Severance”; Jeremy Strong, “Succession.”
KENNEDY:
Should win: Scott for playing two roles on “Severance,” a worker bee and a grieving widow. The star is an everyman, just sputtering through his day, with damage lurking beneath the suit and tie. Will win: Odenkirk, never nominated for “Breaking Bad,” should have at least one Emmy at home for “Better Call Saul.” Or Cox, who had a rip-roaring season on “Succession.”
ELBER:
Should win and will win: A category of heavyweights for sure, with all the above worthy. But Cox triumphs as the wily
magnate scrabbling to control his empire and out-maneuver his equally venal brood.
ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”; Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”; Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”; Elle Fanning,“The Great”; Issa Rae, “Insecure”; Jean Smart, “Hacks.”
ELBER:
Should win: Brunson’s idealistic young schoolteacher is endearing and, as she begins to learn how to survive bureaucracy, growing before our eyes.
Will win: Smart. Back-to-back wins have become rare in the age of peak TV, but her portrayal of a veteran comedian refusing to say uncle reached new levels of vulnerability and grit.
KENNEDY:
Should win and will win: Smart, her character is vicious in anger, driven in her career, but this season also sowing a maternal and soft side.
ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Donald Glover, “Atlanta”; Bill Hader, “Barry”; Nicholas Hoult,“The Great”; Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”; Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”; Martin Short,“Only Murders in the Building.”
ELBER:
Should win: Can we get a twofer for Martin and Short, whose chemistry and playfulness make the series? (With a nod to co-star Selena Gomez; her droll tolerance of the pair adds the perfect note.)
Will win: Hader’s portrayal of a hitman-turned-actor who can’t escape his past is the core of a viciously satirical, addictive brew.
KENNEDY:
Should win: Hoult, playing a vain, unpredictable, glass-breaking, headbutting and unethical Peter III of Russia in “The Great,” sucking the oxygen from every scene. It’s a frat-boy role but hard to nail like Hoult.
Will win: Hader. Everyone loves Hader.
LIMITED SERIES Nominees: “Dopesick”; “The Dropout”; “Inventing Anna”; “The White Lotus”; “Pam & Tommy.”
ELBER:
Should win: “Dopesick” is a granular dissection of the roots of America’s opioid crisis focused on both its victims and villains.
Will win: “The Dropout.” Seeing a Silicon Valley’s high-flier brought down a peg or further is a guilty pleasure, and the story of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes’ spectacular fall is punchily told.
KENNEDY:
Should win: “The Dropout,” a rise and fall — as well as a trip back to her teen years — so well told that viewers could almost feel sorry for Holmes, or at least understand how her fraud could happen.
Will win: “The White Lotus,” a satire of wealth, entitlement and privilege was this cycle’s lite “Big Little Lies,” and it was the splashiest show about rich white people being horrible, which weirdly all the nominees this time had elements of.
ACTOR,
Nominees: Colin Firth, “The Staircase”; Andrew Garfield, “Under the Banner of Heaven”; Oscar Isaac, “Scenes from a Marriage”; Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”; Himesh Patel, “Station Eleven”; Sebastian Stan, “Pam & Tommy.”
ELBER: LIMITED SERIES
Should win and will win: Michael Keaton, for his restrained portrayal of a small-town doctor who’s ensnared by opioids at incalculable cost, to him and his patients.
KENNEDY:
Should win: Isaac, who in “Scenes from a Marriage” whipsaws from being tightly controlled to impulsive, a little befuddled, liable to snap and always human as his heart broke.
Will win: Keaton, who always it seems is an underestimated talent, shining in a role perfectly suited to him: a sweet local doctor gradually understanding the horror he has helped create.
ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES
Nominees: Toni Collette, “The Staircase”; Julia Garner, “Inventing Anna”; Lily James, “Pam & Tommy”; Sarah Paulson, “Impeachment: American Crime Story”; Margaret Qualley,“Maid”; Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout.”
ELBER:
Should win: Qualley did justice to a rarely seen screen character — a struggling, blue-collar single mom — with a nuanced, breakout performance in “Maid.”
Will win: Seyfried, whose portrayal of an ill-fated Silicon Valley whiz kid in “The Dropout” was a pull-out-the-stops barn burner.
KENNEDY:
Should win and will win: We’ll no doubt see all these actors again at the Emmys, but this year it is all about Seyfried, who played a fraudster with a Yoda-loving, Mandarin-speaking, munching-on-a-scorpion and dancing poorly essence.