Bucs’ biggest question in the post-Brady era: Who will replace him?
In the span of one pithy, poignant retirement message, the GOAT in the room was replaced by an elephant.
Suddenly, the question of who steps in for Tom Brady becomes one of the NFL’s most intriguing ones.
Even more critical than finding the right person to call the Tampa Bay Bucs offense is finding the right guy to execute it. Brady’s announcement Wednesday leaves former Florida Gator Kyle Trask — who has made nine career NFL pass attempts — as the only Bucs quarterback under contract. Whether the team opts to give Trask a bona fide shot in 2023 or move in another direction depends on several factors.
Among them: Who will be the coordinator? Will the team choose to shed the bulk of its salary-cap burdens now, minimizing its chances for success in 2023? Will the Glazers further mortgage the future by swinging for the fences and trying to grab a glitzy free agent?
Keeping all those questions in mind, we have compiled a list of plausible candidates, splitting them into three groups: frugal, feasible and far-fetched.
Frugal Kyle Trask Age: Status:
24
Still on rookie contract On the plus side, Trask has had the priceless benefit of studying Brady’s approach — from practice routine to study habits to body maintenance — for two years. On the down side, his accuracy remains a serious question, and he was underwhelming (3 of 9, 23 yards) in his lone NFL regular-season appearance against the Atlanta Falcons in January. Moreover, he now must learn a new system.
Blaine Gabbert Age: 33 Status:
Set to become free agent
Brady’s barely-used backup played on a 1-year deal (with $1.75 million guaranteed) last season, and he represents a seasoned, inexpensive option. Bruce Arians loved Gabbert’s arm, but he’s not running things anymore. And before pointing out his 13-35 career record as a starter, bear in mind that Gabbert had a different offensive coordinator in each of his first nine NFL seasons.
Jacoby Brissett Age: 30 Status:
unrestricted
Set to become unrestricted free agent
In a Bucs season rife with black eyes, Brissett inflicted one of the shiners with his 46-yard strike to Amari Cooper in overtime, setting up Nick Chubb’s winning touchdown run in the Browns’ 23-17 win on Nov. 27. Brissett seemingly has spent his career as the consummate bridge quarterback; he went 4-7 as a starter in Cleveland last season while Deshaun Watson served his suspension, and won one of two starts with the New England Patriots in 2016 while Brady was suspended for Deflategate. Overall, he is 14-23 in his seven-year career.
2023 rookie
With the No. 19 overall pick, the Bucs have virtually no shot at the draft’s marquee quarterbacks (Bryce Williams, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson). Then again, the guy who just retired wasn’t exactly a Day One darling. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, recovering from a torn ACL, could be a steal. If Georgia’s Todd Monken gets the coordinator’s gig, Bulldogs veteran Stetson Bennett might make sense. And Houston’s Clayton Tune reportedly has turned heads at Senior Bowl workouts.
Feasible Sam Darnold Age: 25 Status:
Set to become free agent
A No. 3 overall pick, he may have resuscitated his career with his solid performance down the stretch for the Carolina Panthers, who darn near sneaked into the playoffs. Darnold started Carolina’s last six games, winning four and completing 58.6% of his throws (with 7 touchdowns and only 3 picks). If he’s not in new Panthers coach Frank Reich’s plans, Darnold — who has decent mobility and remains a young guy — seems a viable option.
Baker Mayfield Age: 27 Status:
Set to become free agent
The No. 1 overall pick in 2018 becomes a tantalizing candidate if Monken gets the offensive coordinator job. Monken was the Browns’ coordinator during Mayfield’s second season in Cleveland, when the team finished 6-10. Though he struggled that year (22 touchdowns, 21 interceptions) Monken loves his skill set and competitiveness. Mayfield had some shining moments during his late-season cameo with the L.A. Rams (including a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback in a 17-16 win against the Las Vegas Raiders), and could galvanize a locker room.
31 unrestricted
unrestricted
Status: Set to become unrestricted free agent
When the Bucs began seeking Brady replacements a year ago, Garoppolo wasn’t believed to be high on Bruce Arians’ list due to questions about his deep-ball skills. But if Todd Bowles (and his new coordinator) re-commit to establishing a run game, Jimmy G — 40-17 in his career as a starter — could make sense. Pro Football Focus projects him commanding $15 million on a one-year deal in the open market, which seems reasonable even for a cap-hindered team such as Tampa Bay.
Far-fetched Geno Smith Age: 32 Status:
Set to become free agent
A year ago, most Bucs fans only would have accepted Smith as a No. 3 guy in the room with Gabbert and Trask. Now, he’s too expensive for them. In the wake of his career season in Seattle (69.8% completion rate, 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), he’s considered the No. 2 free agent on the market by Pro Football Focus. While the Bucs brass remain masters at salary-cap manipulation, the potential price tag’s just too exorbitant.
Aaron Rodgers Age: Status:
39
Entering second year of 3-year, $150.8 million extension with the Green Bay Packers
The Packers, who are slightly over the salary cap and owe Rodgers $60 million in 2023, find themselves at a crossroads. While trading Rodgers and kick-starting the Jordan Love era appears probable, the chances of Green Bay dealing him to another NFC team don’t seem likely. Moreover, the team acquiring him reportedly would be on the hook for around $31 million. While that number’s doable, the Bucs would have to shed a lot of contracts — and key personnel — to bring it to fruition.
Derek Carr Age: 31 Status:
unrestricted
Signed 3-year, $121.5 million extension with Raiders last spring
Carr has $40 million in guaranteed money from the Raiders effective Feb. 15, meaning it’s almost certain he’ll be released or traded by then. He has refused to extend that “trigger date,” putting the onus on the Raiders to either release him (meaning they’d get nothing in return) or let him speak with potential suitors (he has a no-trade clause in his deal). Where does this all lead? Probably not Tampa, though the Bucs wouldn’t mind a veteran with a 64.6% career completion rate.