No longer the team to beat in NHL playoffs

TAMPA — The Tampa Bay Lightning know you think they’re not the same.

The big names remain, but they don’t have the same roster that won back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and ‘21. Their depth is depleted. They played more hockey than any other team the past three postseasons. They weren’t as dominant or even consistent during this regular season. Other teams have closed the gap or surpassed them as Cup favorites.

They’re tired of the talk about what has been missing from their game. And now, none of it really matters, especially for a team that saves its best hockey for when it matters most.

The 82-game dress rehearsal is over.

“At this time of the year, we’ve just been talking about all this stuff that it’s almost nauseating,” captain Steven Stamkos said last week with two games left in the regular season. “Let’s just get to the playoffs. That’s where we’re going to be judged.”

No team has seen more playoff success over the past three seasons than the Lightning, but this season is different.

This time last year, Tampa Bay was chasing history, trying to become the first team in the salary-cap era to win three straight Cups. Now the Lightning feel almost like an afterthought in a stacked Eastern Conference field.

“The Stanley Cup is not theirs to lose anymore,” said current NHL Network analyst and former player Brian Lawton. “I felt like it was theirs to lose the past couple years. Now they’ve got to go take it from Boston. They’ve got to go take it from Carolina or from the Rangers, and I’m just talking about teams in the East.

“So it’s a taller task. I would never write that group of guys off, though. There’s a lot of character, there’s a lot of experience, but … just one more time, can they conjure up the energy to get it done? That’s what it feels like to me.”

Can Lightning’s confidence, experience carry them?

When the Lightning begin their first-round series against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday in Toronto, they won’t be favored. They had 98 points in the regular season, sixth among the eight Eastern Conference playoff qualifiers. Their regular-season record against conference foes, 25-22-3, doesn’t overwhelm, and their 6-9-1 mark against the five teams that finished ahead of them in the conference hardly inspires confidence.

“We know where we are in the standings, and that takes a lot of pressure off us just to go in there and try to prove some people wrong,” said center Brayden Point.

The Lightning know how to take away space and grind out games in the tighter-played postseason. But just because they’ve done it before doesn’t mean they can do it again.

“Tampa is going to play hard, and they are going to be mean, and they are going to be as physical as they can be,” said ESPN analyst and former NHL player Ray Ferraro. “If Toronto just plays, they have got enough scars on them now through their losses over the past few years, I think they can handle a lot more than they have in the past.

“The biggest threat to Toronto in this series is that Tampa drags the series into the mud and the Leafs spend half the series trying to prove to everybody how tough they are and they don’t play their game. … It’s the best version of the Leafs and it’s the least-strong version of the Lightning that we’ve seen over the last four years.”

The Bruins had a historic regular season, setting NHL records for wins (65) and points (135), and are the unquestioned team to beat due to their dominance.

But the Lightning know better than anyone that a strong regular season does not make a champion. No one stands in line to take photos with the Presidents’ Trophy.

“We have a group that knows we can win,” said coach Jon Cooper. “It’s hard not to look at Boston and say, ‘All right, if there’s a team that’s probably the front-runner this year, it’s probably them.’ But is there anybody in the East that we fear? No, there is not.”

Will attrition finally catch up to Lightning?

The Lightning had huge losses each of the past two offseasons, and the effects of last summer’s departures of forward Ondrej Palat (free agency) and defenseman Ryan McDonagh (trade) were evident at times in the regular season.

Also, both were huge postseason contributors. Palat scored 27 goals over the past three postseasons, including 12 winners. McDonagh was a Conn Smythe Trophy dark horse two postseasons ago, setting an example in the defensive end with stalwart physicality, positioning and shot blocking.

Trades for forwards Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul last season were made with an eye toward the future, but they depleted the Lightning’s depth and draft picks. General manager Julien BriseBois dealt five picks and defenseman Cal Foote this season to Nashville to get forward Tanner Jeannot, who was injured just as he was coming into his own.

“You look at last year’s run, and in terms of just what we went through as a team with the grinding and the injuries and just the sacrifices everyone made, that was a year to be really proud of,” Stamkos said. “I don’t know if people expected us to go back to the [Cup] final again or not, probably not. And probably even more not so this year.

“But once playoff hockey starts, you never know. And if there’s any type of edge you can try to get on another team based on the experience that we have, the trials and tribulations that we’ve been through as a group, you just lay it on the line.”