Can Biden, Democrats really win Florida?
The audience of well-heeled donors and VIPs applauded when President Joe Biden delivered instructions and reassurance. “Here in Florida,” the president declared at the event in Pinecrest, “we have to organize, mobilize, and vote. And if we do, we will win in Florida.”
Similar assessments came in the last week from other Democrats including Nikki Fried, chair of the state party and Fentrice Driskell, the minority party leader in the state House of Representatives.
Victory is within grasp, they suggested, if only the Democrats work hard enough, raise enough money and communicate well enough to register voters, get them engaged and make sure they get to the polls.
Is there a realistic scenario in which that’s possible, or is it performative? To many Democrats, Republicans and non-partisan analysts, the notion that November could bring major Democratic successes in Florida is highly unlikely.
“Sounds like something out of Alice in Wonderland,” said former U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo. The Miami-Dade County Republican was rated as one of the most bipartisan lawmakers, willing to work with Democrats, and didn’t vote for his party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, in 2016, and has decried the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.
State Rep. Rick Roth, vice chair of the Palm Beach County Republican Party, called the Biden-Fried-Driskell assessment “wishful thinking.”
But it’s not only Republicans — including Trump supporters and those who don’t like the former president — who share that outlook.
“Right now, I would call them incredibly optimistic,” said Sean Phillippi, a Democratic strategist who has worked for many political campaigns, in South Florida and statewide.
Election Day isn’t until Nov. 5 and “there’s still time to change the dynamics of the election. But for right now the voter registration numbers aren’t conducive to any Democrat winning Florida statewide,” Phillippi said.
Besides the presidential race, in which Florida will award 30 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, voters will decide whether to reelect U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Different state: For much of the 2000s, Florida was seen as the premier battleground state, home to the biggest cache of electoral votes that either party could win in a presidential election. Democrats sometimes won statewide offices.
But it’s become a Republican red state instead of a purple blend of red and Democratic Blue.
In 2012, President Barack Obama and Biden, then the vice president, won the state on Obama’s way to a second term, and then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson won reelection.
Immediately after that election, Democrats had 558,272 more registered voters than the Republicans. There are now 779,701 more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida.
And the state votes differently. In the five election cycles since 2012, Republicans have won 16 statewide elections. Democrats won just one, for state agriculture commissioner in 2018. (In the five previous election cycles, Republicans won 10 and Democrats won five.)
Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans now dominate the Florida congressional delegation, and control supermajorities in the state Senate and House of Representatives.
Lost cause?: Nevertheless, Democrats shouldn’t write off the state, said Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University. At least not yet.
“Florida is solidly red in terms of public opinion polling right now,” Foreman said. “But before they give up completely on Florida … I think they need to make a couple of visits to really test the temperature of Florida Democrats and see if it’s possible to make a run at this state or if it’s just pie-in-the-sky thinking.”
“The reality is it’s probably not going to be a competitive state in November,” Foreman said.
Phillippi shared that assessment, though he added altering the trajectory would be difficult.
“There needs to be an investment of millions of dollars in voter registration in order for the Democrats to retake the lead in terms of registered voters over Republicans. Until that happens, it’s incredibly unlikely for any Democrats win statewide,” he said.
As the political outlook in the state has shifted, it’s become harder for Democrats to find people to pay for the kind of voter registration and mobilization infrastructure the party had during the Obama era. People who can make major donations have to decide if they want to devote their money to Florida, or spend in states that are more in the toss-up category, such as Georgia.
“Major donors have abandoned Florida,” Phillippi said. “If major donors invest $5 million to $10 million in voter registration, and that money is spent well in actually registering voters, yes, it is possible. But it will take that kind of effort.”
Can’t throw in the towel: Practically speaking, Biden and other Democrats have to promote a path to victory in Florida.
“It would be uncouth to come down here and say please give me your money, by the way we have no chance of winning,” Phillippi said.
“They want to keep people engaged and they want to keep what little money is left down here coming in,” Phillippi said.
Also, suggesting failure in the future could hurt Democratic turnout in downballot races. Telling people there is no hope could suppress Democratic turnout if people figure there’s no reason to go to the polls, and that could hurt the party’s candidates running for lower-level offices.
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, for example, it was clear for months to anyone paying attention that Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis would defeat Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would defeat Democratic challenger Val Demings.
The inevitability dispirited Democrats, and that showed in the results: DeSantis received 13% more votes in 2022 than in 2018. Crist received 23% fewer votes than the 2018 Democratic nominee for governor, Andrew Gillum.
Democratic voters staying home in droves helped to produce a spate of losses for the party in close contests for state Legislature and County Commission.
In 2024, there are competitive elections for lower-level offices where the Democrats suffered losses in 2022, sometimes by close margins.
Even if the Republican presidential nominee wins the state and Scott wins reelection, “it’s important that Democrats make gains” in lower-level offices as the party attempts to build for the future.
Democrats have been buoyed by the results of a January special election in Central Florida, in which a Democrat captured a Republican-held seat in the state House of Representatives, and by last year’s election for mayor of Jacksonville, when a Democrat won a seat that had been Republican.
“We’re very much alive, and we very much can do hard things and difficult things when we have the right amount of investment and when we have the time to put that to work and deploy it on the ground and communicate with voters,” Driskell said.
Fried said turnout among Democrats and left-leaning independents could be juiced by two proposals awaiting clearance from the Florida Supreme Court to go on the November ballot. One would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution. Another would authorize recreational marijuana.
“Florida is in play and is worth fighting for,” she said.
From the Republican side, Roth said, “We are winning.”
But he said Republicans can’t afford complacency, even in increasingly red Florida.
“Conservatives like me focus more on policy than politics, and we are famous for failing to do good PR to explain our positions,” Roth said via text, suggesting it would be possible for a narrative to emerge that wouldn’t be good for Republicans. “We could find a way to lose.”
Why come?: The Biden administration has, so far, been unwilling to write off Florida politically.
The Monday trip was the president’s sixth to the state since he took office. Vice President Kamala Harris, first lady Jill Biden, and various Cabinet secretaries have made multiple visits for official government business and political events.
The Biden operation declined to say how much was raised at the Jupiter and Pinecrest events. But Chris Korge, who hosted the second event at his Pinecrest home, said it took in $6.2 million. Korge, national finance chair of the Biden Victory Fund, said it was the most successful fundraiser ever held for a presidential candidate in Florida.
Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, slammed Biden for devoting the one-day trip to raising campaign money.
“Joe Biden is only talking to Floridians who can shell out $250,000 to be in the same room as him because he knows that he can’t win over everyday voters. As inflation continues to cripple families in the Sunshine State and across the country, it’s no question that Florida’s election results will be even more embarrassing for Biden this year than in 2020,” she said in a statement.
It’s the same thing that both Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, the remaining candidate challenging Trump for the Republican nomination, did at their reported South Florida fundraisers this week: Hold them behind closed doors.
Biden, like every other presidential candidate, raises money in (Republican) Florida for the same reason DeSantis raised money in (overwhelmingly Democratic) California for his unsuccessful candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.
“That’s where the money is,” Phillippi said.