Crowded field looks to succeed Grayson
5 Democrats, 2 Republicans active
The race to succeed Rep. Alan Grayson in the U.S. House has drawn five Democrats looking to capture what some analysts consider a safe seat for their party.
But not everyone thinks that the district is as securely Democratic as it once was. New boundaries were drawn after redistricting, adding 25,000 new Republican voters at the expense of independents and Democrats.
“As to the argument that a more centrist Democrat has a better chance … maybe?” said UCF political science professor Aubrey Jewett. “But maybe not. It all depends on the particular Democratic candidate. A candidate that’s really progressive can excite the base and get [a good] turnout.”
Democrats running to suc-
ceed Grayson, who is running for U.S. Senate, include a state senator, Darren Soto; Grayson’s former district manager, Susannah Randolph; a former Osceola Democratic chair, Valleri Crabtree; technology consultant Jason Borders; and a biochemist, Dena Minning, who is Grayson’s fiancée.
Two candidates have entered the race on the Republican side, including businessman Wayne Liebnitzky and Kissimmee Vice Mayor Wanda Rentas.
They’re all battling to represent a district that changed less dramatically than others after the state Supreme Court ordered new boundaries late last year. But there were a few significant changes nonetheless.
The district, which includes all of Osceola County, lost sections of the eastern and southern Orlando suburbs in Orange County while gaining a large part of eastern Polk County.
While the percentage of active Democratic voters stayed about the same, at about 41 percent, the district gained a significant number of Republican voters at the expense of independents, according to an Orlando Sentinel analysis of voter rolls.
The percentage of active Republicans jumped 5 percentage points, from 24.9 to 29.9 percent, while unaffiliated voters dropped by almost as much, going from 34.1 to 29.3 percent.
Also, the Hispanic makeup of the electorate has fallen from about 40 percent to about 30 percent.
“It picked up huge swaths of rural voters,” Soto said of the new district. “It goes all the way down to Yeehaw Junction and Frostproof.”
Soto said that means the district will be more competitive, especially in offyear elections.
As a result, he said, “Our goal is to rally Democrats in the primary and then win what will be a competitive, Democratic-leaning district. … We will be highlighting our proud Democratic record while maintaining a broad platform to appeal to all voters.”
Cook’s Partisan Voting Index, calculated by comparing the vote in the past two presidential elections with the rest of the country, lists Democrats as having only a 3 percentage point advantage in the district — down from 8 points in 2014.
Randolph pointed out that despite the change in its makeup, Cook still lists District 9 as a solid Democratic hold in this year’s election.
“That favors a candidate with a strong record of progressive values, such as raising the minimum wage, expanding access to affordable health care and policies [fighting] economic equality,” she said. “Basically someone who’s going to stand up for the families and working people in District 9.’’
Crabtree, meanwhile, called herself a “purple Democrat” and said, “I believe the kinds of things I stand for are most appealing to moderate Democrats, [independents] and moderate Republicans.”
She also said that those types of voters who want to have a say in the congressional election should register as Democrats so they can vote in the party primary.
Despite the gap between Democrats and Republicans narrowing, Jewett said, the biggest problem for Republicans “is getting a good, quality challenger in this race. Someone who can raise money and has decent name recognition. … [Because] as the cycle moves on, the people with the big money make the decision as to which districts are competitive — and which are not.”
As for the Republicans, Liebnitzky — who calls himself “a vet with a voice” — said he knew that running as a Republican in District 9 was “a tough pitch” for him.
“But now? It looks really, really good. … As far as demographics, it’s a lot closer.”
Minning’s campaign declined a request for comment. Rentas and Borders could not be reached for comment.