Global view: Let democracy have its day in Venezuela.
Venezuela is on the brink of implosion. People are quite simply struggling to put food on the table or to heat their homes. The only glimmer of hope for desperate Venezuelans is a bid by the opposition to lawfully remove President Nicolas Maduro from office. A recall referendum, an opportunity to vote for presidential change, has overwhelming public support. Yet Maduro’s stubborn regime is doing all it can to sabotage the process. It is playing a very dangerous game, standing in the way of possibly the last hope of a peaceful change of power. By doing so, Maduro threatens to trigger widespread chaos.
The need for change in Venezuela is overwhelming. Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, gambled Venezuela’s massive oil riches on a series of unworkable utopian social projects. With oil prices at a 12-year low, inflation is set to reach a mindboggling 720 percent this year. Venezuelans are suffering enormously. In a recent survey, 87 percent said that their incomes are insufficient to purchase food. Meanwhile, the lights could quite literally go out, as years of infrastructural negligence have resulted in a massive power shortage. Maduro’s desperate measures to preserve energy include a plea to women to stop using hairdryers and a two-day week for public workers. Disaster seems inevitable. Laughably, Maduro blames fictional “sabotage” and foreign “plots.”
He has done his best to silence opposition, imprisoning influential leaders and stacking the judiciary with loyalists to block legislation from the elected parliament. However, Maduro cannot contain the public clamour for change forever. The opposition push for a recall referendum, an entirely peaceful initiative, enjoys huge public support. An initial requirement to collect 200,000 signatures was quickly eclipsed with 1.85 million signatures within days. Meanwhile, a recent poll indicated that twothirds of Venezuelans would vote to oust Maduro in a recall referendum.
And this despite the regime’s best attempts to obstruct the constitutional process. The Maduro-backed National Electoral Council is persistently delaying, dragging its feet on the recall referendum procedure. Inexplicably, the NEC took two months to hand relevant documents to the opposition to begin collecting signatures, caving in only under threat of a mass protest. Although the requisite support was secured within days, the NEC initially refused to begin counting the signatures, claiming it must respect a 30-day deadline to collect names. Officials then intentionally delayed completion of the count.
And with several additional stages remaining before an actual referendum can be held, the big question remains: Will the NEC and the regime continue to impede? Will Maduro find a pretext to halt the entire process if it looks likely to succeed? The initial signs are ominous. Earlier this month, Maduro branded the recall referendum “optional,” although it is a process enshrined in the very constitution Maduro is bound to uphold. He has since threatened to make the opposition-controlled parliament “disappear,” showing utter disdain for democracy.
It would be little surprise if Maduro and his comrades were to block the recall referendum. This is a regime that routinely places ideological purity above the interests of the people. However, it would also be utterly reckless and dangerously irresponsible. To slam shut Venezuelans’ remaining escape route from unfolding disaster, as food and electricity become increasingly scarce, would risk a major public backlash and the prospect of serious unrest. In fact, dozens of public protests have already taken place across the country in recent weeks, only to be met by police with tear gas. The prospect of a descent into violence is palpable.
The world should be clear what this might look like. In 2014, unarmed protesters took to the streets to demand greater freedoms. They were met with live fire and beatings by police and soldiers, resulting in at least 40 deaths and around 650 injuries.
Venezuela is teetering on the edge of catastrophe. A recall referendum is perhaps the last chance for peaceful, orderly change. The United States, as the pre-eminent regional power, must make itself heard — starting with the representatives of Florida, home to the nation’s largest concentration of Venezuelan Americans. The message to Maduro must be clear. Let democracy finally have its day, or resign.
The only hope is a bid to lawfully remove the president.