Less than a week
Secretary of state wades into thicket of allies and rivals
after North Korea testlaunched four ballistic missiles that plunged into the Sea of Japan just 200 miles from Japan’s coastline, the isolated country appears to be readying a nuclear site for a future test.
TOKYO — Less than a week after North Korea test-launched four ballistic missiles that plunged into the Sea of Japan just 200 miles from Japan’s coastline, the isolated country appears to be readying its Punggye-ri nuclear site for a future test.
The threat posed by North Korea has neighboring Asian nations scrambling for a plan on how best to confront the defiant government of Kim Jong Un and slow its advance toward being able to launch a nuclear strike.
That topic will be at the forefront this week as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson takes his first trip in office to Asia, a six-day sweep through Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing. He will be faced with a range of options that include opening a dialogue with North Korea, adding new sanctions or even launching a preemptive strike on North Korea’s facilities.
The most perplexing issue for Tillerson could be how to navigate the fractious relationships the Asian nations have with one another. South Korea and Japan struggle with deeprooted political disagreements that go back generations, while both accuse China of shielding North Korea from significant punishment.
“The Trump administration’s actions in this region will be vital to determining whether the North Korea situation improves or continues to deteriorate,” said Hideaki Kaneda, a retired Japanese vice admiral and fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
“The U.S. must try to bring together nations who are reluctant to put their faith in one another,” he said.
The U.S. would like to see the three Asian nations join with Washington to confront North Korea, but the tangled relationships make that difficult.
Japan wants a more active U.S. response to North Korea and is working to build pressure on Pyongyang.
But Japan and South Korea remain locked in a standoff over bitter memories of World War II, especially the treatment of thousands of Korean women who were forced into sexual slavery by Japanese occupation forces.
China remains North Korea’s only major ally and trading partner, but has stepped up its economic pressure on Pyongyang in response to its nuclear tests. Relations between China and North Korea are at their worst in recent memory because of the repeated military tests.
Yet, the Chinese fear pushing too hard and causing North Korea to collapse.
China has called on North Korea to suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the U.S. and South Korea halting joint military exercises in South Korea.
But Washington refused to consider what it said would be rewarding Pyongyang’s bad behavior with cancellation of legitimate defensive exercises.
“The relationship between China and North Korea is similar to that of a mother with a son who doesn’t listen,” said Akio Takahara, a professor at the University of Tokyo who specializes in Chinese affairs. “You need the mother to reprimand the child.”
U.S. efforts to strengthen South Korea’s defenses have angered the Chinese, who say that planned antimissile systems could be used against them.
The U.S. and South Korean militaries announced last week the deployment of elements of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, a missile-defense system for South Korea. Missile launchers and other equipment arrived in South Korea, but the system as a whole won’t be operational until April at the earliest.
The U.S. insists THAAD is aimed at stopping North Korean missiles, but the deployment infuriated China, which sees the system as part of a U.S. strategy to contain its rising power. The Chinese have threatened to essentially sever diplomatic ties with Seoul and have already pulled back on economic ties.
Complicating matters further is the corruption scandal that led to South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s ouster on Friday. The turmoil in South Korea’s government will make it difficult for Tillerson to gain traction with the country’s politicians.
For more than a decade, the complicated mix of interests in East Asia has stymied U.S. efforts to block North Korea from slowly but steadily developing nuclear weapons.
It remains to be seen what new ideas the Trump administration will bring.
“What foreign policy can be implemented to make North Korea give up?” asked Tsuneo Watanabe, foreign and security policy expert with the Tokyo Foundation think tank. “So far we haven’t seen an American president step up with a meaningful plan.”
The Obama’s administration’s policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea neither stopped the nation’s provocative acts nor ensured the safety of its neighbors. Japanese and South Korean officials derided the policy as an excuse for doing nothing.
That tactic should not be replicated by Tillerson and the Trump administration, said Narushige Michishita, a foreign policy professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
“We cannot wait forever,” he said. “The situation is deteriorating, and the stakes are much too high.”