Kremlin is unlikely peace broker in 2nd Afghan foray
WASHINGTON — As America’s effort to end 16 years of war in Afghanistan yields little progress, Russia is resurrecting its own interest in the “graveyard of empires.” The jockeying includes engaging the Taliban and leading a new diplomatic effort to tackle Afghanistan’s future, with or without U.S. support.
Uncertain of Moscow’s intentions, the Trump administration will stay away when Russia hosts regional powers China, India, Iran and Pakistan, and several Central Asian countries, for another set of Afghan talks this month. Afghanistan’s government is attending, but the U.S. declined an invitation, saying it wasn’t consulted ahead of time. No one has invited the Taliban.
For Russia, dogged by memories of the Soviet Union’s disastrous 1980s occupation of Afghanistan, it’s a surprising turn at the head of the country’s proverbial peace table. And it coincides with the Kremlin’s campaign to wield greater international authority at U.S. expense elsewhere, including intervening in Syria’s war and pushing for a settlement on President Bashar Assad’s and its own terms. Moscow even has sought to broker new Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, challenging Washington’s grip on the Mideast peace process.
For the United States, the new Russian foray into Afghanistan may represent another worrying consequence of a perceived American retrenchment. The perception has intensified overseas as President Donald Trump formulates new policy. Since taking office, he has scarcely mentioned Afghanistan, the U.S. military’s largest deployment in a war zone.
“Russia sees a gap and is trying to fill it,” said Jonah Blank, a South Asia expert at the Rand Corp. “It’s looking around for opportunities, for any place where it can expand its own influence and freedom to pursue its own interests and undermine U.S. alliances and partnerships.”
Although Washington is sitting out the upcoming Moscow conference, officials said the State Department still wants to work with Russia and others to encourage Afghan peace talks. But it is trying to get Russia and others to increase pressure on the Taliban, said officials who weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the diplomacy and requested anonymity.