Rain, track conditions could be factor in race
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The chilly rain forecast to last through Kentucky Derby day reached Churchill Downs on Thursday, prompting talk of which contender might handle sloppy conditions the best. For his part, trainer
said he’s not at all concerned with how his Maryland-based contender, Irish War Cry, might handle the slop.
Motion has watched Irish War Cry glide easily over the mud in training, and he also takes comfort from the fact the colt’s father, Curlin, was formidable in bad weather.
“I watched him gallop over the mud last week at Fair Hill, and he traveled beautifully over it,” Motion said. “I would be very surprised if he didn’t handle it.”
Trainers tend to shrug off weather as a factor they can’t control. But it’s another source of uncertainty in a race that’s already full of them. With so many talented but inexperienced horses thrown together, it’s difficult to say which contender might thrive in the muck and which might falter.
“It’s going to be sloppy probably,” said who trains Derby contender Girvin. “It’s untested waters.”
If you’re prospecting for a Derby horse who isn’t one of the favorites but is generating consistent buzz among the wise-guy handicappers on the backstretch, look no further than
Hence. Asmussen is no hype man. He’s a Hall of Fame trainer who has experienced his share of heartache saddling horses for the Derby. But he believes the excitement around Hence is warranted.
“The timing has been very good for him,” he said. “He’s a horse of obvious ability.”
Hence didn’t make much of a ripple when he won the Sunland Derby on March 26, and he hasn’t run since. So why all the interest? Well, several of the horses he beat that day — most prominently Blue Grass Stakes winner Irap — have gone on to perform better than anyone thought they could. And that has cast a retrospective glow on Hence’s signature win.
But Asmussen is a selfprofessed numbers guy, and he said the figures show Hence has as good a chance as any horse to control the Derby.