Scott Maxwell: Polls are lame, GOP is happy, and eight more takeaways from Tuesday’s primary results,
There’s a lot to dissect from this week’s primary results. Here are 10 takeaways: Polls are lame. Most polls had Andrew Gillum fetching 10 to 16 percent in the Democratic primary for governor and coming in third or fourth place. Instead, he got 34 percent and won. This is partly because Gillum surged late, but also because antiquated polling techniques don’t always capture newly registered voters — or younger ones more prone to communicate through Snapchat than phone lines. Overall, my industry would better serve everyone by paying more attention to issues and track records than daily polls, fundraising reports and the latest attack ads.
Republicans are happy. Only one Democratic candidate scared Republicans: Gwen Graham. She’s a moderate with a proven record as the only Dem who had ever beaten a Republican, and in a right-leaning congressional district, no less. So the Republican Governors Association attacked Graham over and over, hoping Democrats would nominate anyone other than her. Democratic voters granted that wish.
Gillum delivered, but should
also thank Greene. Gillum ran a helluva campaign. It sparked younger voters and did something few other candidates did — actually inspired people. That said, Gillum should also thank South Florida billionaire Jeff Greene for his victory. Greene spent millions smearing Graham on TV and in mailers. Greene may have spent more money bashing Graham than Gillum spent on his whole campaign. Graham lost to Gillum by 3 points.
All you need is Fox. Forget grass-roots campaigning — at least in a GOP primary. While Adam
Putnam knocked on doors and visited county fairs, Ron DeSantis campaigned largely from a TV studio, delivering his message through Fox News. Politico reported that DeSantis made 121 appearances on Fox and Fox Business after he announced he was running for governor. Coupled with President Trump’s endorsement, it was enough to demolish Putnam.
Voters like schools. If I ever run for office, I’m changing my name to
“School Tax.” More Orange County residents voted for the additional property tax for schools than they did for any candidate on the entire ballot. It passed with 83.6 percent, showing citizens are willing to pay for things they care about … and that Florida legislators should stop short-changing public education.
Demings dominates. It’s hard to overstate how powerful Sheriff
Jerry Demings looked in his historic victory for Orange County mayor Tuesday. The race was the most expensive primary ever, yet he cruised to victory with three times as many votes as either of his opponents. If you’re trying to identify the new top dog in local politics, well, there’s a new sheriff in town … and
he’s now the mayor.
Demings-Jacobs spat settled? Mayor Teresa Jacobs also posted an impressive win, beating back three opponents to become Orange County’s next school chair. But that means we now have both Jacobs and Demings — who spent the last three weeks fighting, sniping and seeming to genuinely dislike each other — back in top posts. Let’s hope they can put the sniping over school safety — and everything else — in the rear-view mirror for both their sakes and the community’s.
Partisanship didn’t play. At least not in Orange County’s district 4. These county commission races are supposed to be nonpartisan. But local Democrats piled on the partisanship, stressing that Nicolette
Springer was a loyal Dem backed by Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer while also trying to link Susan Makowski with Republicans and even Donald Trump. It didn’t work … at all. Makowski got the most votes. Springer didn’t even make the runoff.
Don’t call it a comeback. Perhaps no one suffered a more crushing defeat than
Alan Grayson. Again. After getting destroyed in a U.S. Senate primary in 2016, he got blown away again this year in an attempt to get back his old House seat. Grayson revels in driving Republicans crazy. But these were his fellow liberals rejecting him ... twice. Similarly, Fred Brummer wanted his former county commission seat back in Orange County. Voters, however, wanted him to stay home … which is where he can watch the runoff, since he finished third.
Blue wave? I mentioned a few weeks ago that I was skeptical of the big “Blue Wave” Democrats have predicted for Florida. I still am, and now we have more numbers to show why. Despite big talk from the Democrats, more Republicans showed up to cast ballots — even though there are fewer Republicans in the state. Dems will argue their base will be more motivated versus Republicans in November. But it works both ways. The bottom line: Rallies, registration drives and social media campaigns are key. But the only thing that really matters in elections is voting.