In Central Florida, early voters have already topped 2014 totals
Only halfway through early voting in Florida, totals in Orange and Lake counties have already surpassed 2014, and the entire state was not far behind.
While Democrats can point to big margins in Orange County and especially the new early voting site at the University of Central Florida, Republicans are keeping it close in early voting and are in the lead over Democrats thanks to mail-in ballots.
Statewide, as of midday Monday, more than 1 million Floridians had cast early ballots, with another nearly 1.7 million voting by mail, according to the state Division of Elections.
Democrats on Monday had a slim 42 to 41 percent lead over Republicans in early voting so far, with a strong weekend for Democrats helping them gain the edge.
But after including mailin votes, Republicans had a 42 to 40 percent lead over Democrats statewide, state records show.
As expected, independent voters will likely be the deciders. About 17 percent of ballots cast so far have been by independent, or no party affiliation, voters.
Totals this year should easily surpass the 1,309,522 people who voted early in Florida in the last midterm election in 2014.
For Democrats, “It’s a double-edged sword,” said Daniel Smith, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Florida. “There’s been higher turnout across the board in a midterm election and African-Americans and Hispanics are voting at a higher rate. But that’s offset by an increase in turnout by white voters, older voters and Republican voters.”
African-American voters usually have big turnout numbers on the second Sunday of early voting, known as “Souls to the Polls,” Smith said, so Democrats could see bigger gains next weekend. Election Day is Nov. 6.
But young voters ages 18 to 29, which make up 27 percent of the electorate, are only 5 percent of early and mail-in voters so far, he said.
There was some good news for Democrats at the new early voting site at UCF, however.
The site at the Live Oaks Event Center – in a higher-trafficked area than in 2014, the last time there was early voting at UCF – had already outpaced 2014 with 1,863 voters as of late afternoon Monday, compared with 1,834 for all of 2014.
While the site is pulling in the lowest numbers for any of the 16 Orange County voting sites overall, it had one of the biggest margins of Democrats over Republicans, with 1,171 Democrats to just 287 Republicans. NPAs outpolled Republicans there with 381 votes.
“And that’s without any major rallies or big-name surrogates driving voter turnout,” said state Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, DOrlando, who had long pushed for a UCF site.
Smith pointed out that U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont will be at UCF on Wednesday for an Andrew Gillum rally. “We’re just getting started,” he said.
Overall in Orange County, more than 79,000 people voted at one of the 16 sites across the county as of Monday afternoon. Almost 51 percent of those, more than 40,000, were Democrats, with another 23,000 Republicans voting early and 14,000 NPA voters.
Lake County already has outdone 2014, with more than 27,000 voting early. There, with 51 percent of early voters have been Republicans, 32 percent Democrats and 17 percent NPA.
Republicans had a slimmer lead in Seminole County early voting, with 41 percent to 38 percent for Democrats. The 34,000 who voted early should approach the 36,000 from 2014 in the next few days.
Osceola, the only Central Florida county in which early voting began Friday and not Oct. 22, had less than 9,000 early votes, with Democrats holding a 49 to 32 percent lead.
Early voting continues in Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties until Sunday and in Lake County until Saturday.