Scott Maxwell:
State’s blue wave confined to Central Florida.
By now, you know there was no Blue Wave in Florida, as Republicans kept their stronghold on the state.
But a deeper dive into Tuesday’s numbers reveals two interesting trends:
1) Democrats lost again because they didn’t show up. At least not the way Republicans did. Even in places like Broward County — home of the Parkland shooting, where Democrats vowed to respond with unprecedented civic activism — turnout lagged.
2) While Florida keeps voting red, Central Florida is turning bluer.
Why Dems lost
Let’s start with the turnout issue.
If you believed the marches and rallies, no county was more motivated to vote than Broward, where students were slaughtered in their high school and where the “March for Our Lives” movement was born.
Yet voter turnout in Broward was actually lower than the state average.
Statewide, 62 percent of registered voters went to the polls. In Broward, it was only 57 percent.
And there were similar belowaverage turnouts in other big, blue counties (52 percent in Osceola, 56 percent in Miami-Dade, 60 percent in Orange).
Meanwhile, voters in Republican counties showed up in droves — with turnouts of 70 percent and higher in Sumter, Collier and elsewhere.
Democrats and young people upped their voting game. But Republicans upped theirs as well. And voting is, of course, the only thing that ultimately matters in elections.
Central Florida goes blue
While a blue wave never crested in Florida, one did wash over Central Florida.
Not only did Democrats oust two GOP legislators and flip three seats total, Seminole County went blue for the first time in … well … ever.
Seminole used to be a proud bastion of conservatism — a place where Democrats had as much chance getting elected as I have of sprouting fairy wings. (Which, to be clear, I have no desire to sprout. They’d make blazerwearing awkward.) But Seminole not only voted for for Bill Nelson, but also Andrew Gillum … the guy Ron DeSantis called a “socialist.”
That is a total transformation — a reflection of Orlando’s bedroom-community sprawl and unprecedented activism by party faithful.
Winners & losers
Moderation won: Two years ago, when Democrat
Stephanie Murphy booted veteran GOP Congressman
John Mica from office, Republicans vowed to get back the seat. They didn’t even come close. Murphy trounced GOP challenger Mike Miller 58-42. The GOP ran ads claiming Murphy was a “San Francisco liberal.” But it was a lie that didn’t fly. Murphy is a centrist Democrat who worked on local issues, such as funding for UCF and public schools, and voters seemed to appreciate it.
Name-calling lost: You’d be hard-pressed to find a legislative race where Republicans wasted more money than House District 47, where
Stockton Reeves and the GOP plastered the district with ads that accused Democrat Anna Eskamani of being a “tantrum” thrower who … (gasp!) … uses profanity. Republicans claimed Eskamani didn’t share the district’s values. But voters there apparent thought it was the GOP’s message that didn’t fit in. Eskamani walloped Reeves 57-43. All by herself. Democrat
Geraldine Thompson continues to be underappreciated by her own party — and yet succeeds anyway. The former legislator and teacher has been a savvy and effective representative of her party for more than a decade. Yet the party rarely gives her money or even the time of day. This year, Thompson was outspent by more than 3-1 — and still managed to steal a State House seat from Republican incumbent Bobby Olszewski. Don’t underestimate her.
Eisnaugle skates. I wrote earlier about the relatively low performance rating that legislator-turned-judge Eric
Eisnaugle earned from the Florida Bar, based on criteria such as integrity, knowledge of the law and freedom from bias. Well, voters may have noticed. Eisnaugle earned the lowest level of voter support among any of the judges up for a retention vote in Florida this week. (He placed 18th out of 18.) But it was of little consequence. Eisnaugle still earned 63 percent support, plenty enough to keep his seat on the Court of Appeal — a post from which no judge has ever been removed in one of these retention votes.
More bundling
And finally, few issues seemed to unite voters more this cycle than the bipartisan disdain citizens had for the constitutional amendments that lumped together totally unrelated topics. Well, too bad. You can expect to see more of it. Why? Because all but one of the amendments passed.
Bundling might not be an honest way to allow citizens to consider issues on their individual merits. But it’s legal — and apparently effective.