CAN THEY KEEP IT UP?
After stringing together 5 straight wins, Clifford’s crew could land in postseason
The NBA All-Star break is over and the playoff chase is set to resume.
The top five teams in the Eastern Conference — the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers — are firmly in place. There may be some shuffling among them, but they likely won’t be falling out of the top five as the postseason draws closer.
The three remaining playoff spots, on the other hand, are another story.
As the regular season picks up again Thursday, the teams in the sixth through 10th positions — the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic — are separated by just three games.
But not all of the remaining schedules are equal, and the Magic are poised to take advantage of that discrepancy.
Of the five teams vying for the final three playoff spots, the Magic
have the easiest remaining strength of schedule with a combined opponent winning percentage of .460. That ranks 28th in the league.
Of their remaining 23 regular-season games, the Magic will face just eight teams with a winning record.
The Heat and Nets, on the other hand, both have a remaining strength of schedule at a .541 winning percentage. That’s the secondand third-highest in the NBA.
Topping that list are the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose remaining opponents have a combined .572 winning percentage.
Here’s a closer look at the five teams chasing the final three playoff spots in the East.
The strength of schedule reflects the combined winning percentage of a team’s opponents for the remainder of the season and where that ranks in the NBA from most difficult to least difficult.
Playoff projections are based on current records and remaining schedules from basketballreference.com (BR), ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Playoff Odds (BPI) and FiveThirtyEight’s “CARMELO” and “Elo” ratings. Each team’s percentage, as assigned by the projection, to make the playoffs is in parentheses.
Brooklyn Nets (30-29)
Currently: 6th
Predictions: BR – 6th (82.3); ESPN BPI – 6th (83.2); FiveThirtyEight Elo – 7th (72.0); FiveThirtyEight CARMELO – 7th (78.0)
The Nets stumbled into the all-star break with six losses in a nine-game stretch, all without backup point guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who’s out with a thumb injury. The Nets had climbed to their current playoff position with a torrid 20-6 stretch from early December to late January.
The Nets did get shooting guard Caris LeVert (out since Nov. 12) and forward Allen Crabbe back from injuries. Schedule: The Nets gets back into action Thursday at home against the Portland Trail Blazers, then will face the Hornets twice in their next four games. The playoff deal breaker likely will come in March when the Nets have a daunting six-game Western road. The opener March 13 in Oklahoma City will start a stretch where the Nets will play 11 of their final 13 games against teams with a winning record. Remaining games :23 Remaining strength of schedule: .541 winning percentage/3rd of 30
Toughest games: Bucks (twice), Raptors, Pacers, Thunder, Celtics, Jazz, Kings, Trail Blazers, 76ers
Charlotte Hornets (27-30)
Currently: 7th
Predictions: BR – 10th (54.4); ESPN BPI – 10th (44.8); FiveThirtyEight Elo – 10th (41.0); FiveThirtyEight CARMELO – 10th (48.0)
The inconsistent Hornets have hovered around the .500 mark all season under first-year coach and former Magic assistant James Borrego. Their longest winning streak and losing streak have been three games. Through their first 40 games, the Hornets weren’t more than one game above the .500 mark or more than two games below it. They climbed to 26-26 with a Feb. 2 win over the Bulls, then went 1-4 in their next five games, including their 127-89 loss last Thursday to the Magic.
Remaining games: 25 Remaining strength of schedule: .541 winning percentage/2nd of 30
Toughest games: Raptors (twice), Warriors (twice), Trail Blazers (twice), Rockets (twice), Nets (twice), Bucks, Jazz, 76ers and Celtics.
Schedule: Charlotte’s playoff course may be determined early in its postall-star schedule. The Hornets will play six games in 10 days, starting Friday against the Wizards before facing the Nets, Warriors, Rockets, Nets (on the road) and Trail Blazers in a nineday stretch.
Detroit Pistons (26-30)
Currently: 8th Predictions: BR – 8th (54.9); ESPN BPI – 7th (57.0); FiveThirtyEight Elo – 8th (53.0); FiveThirtyEight CARMELO – 7th (64.0)
The Pistons were 13-7 before a six-game losing streak started them in the wrong direction. The skid turned out to be a harbinger of things to come as the Pistons went just 9-22 from Game 21 to Game 51. Playing the Knicks twice helped the Pistons win four of their last five games before the allstar break as they snuck into eighth place.
Led by Andre Drummond, the league’s top shotblocker, the Pistons remain a stalwart defensive team. They limit opponents to 108.1 points a game, ninthbest in the NBA. Remaining games: 26 Remaining strength of schedule: .482 winning percentage/24th of 30
Toughest games: Raptors (twice), Pacers (twice), Warriors, Nuggets
Schedule: The Pistons’ overall remaining strength of schedule ranks 24th in the league, but that will be negated somewhat with 15 of their final 26 games coming on the road, including a late March trio of matchups with the Blazers, Warriors and Nuggets. The Pistons, who play three of their first four post-all-star games on the road, are 9-17 away from Little Caesars Arena this season.
Miami Heat (26-30)
Currently: 9th
Predictions: BR – 9th (44.7); ESPN BPI – 8th (53.5); FiveThirtyEight Elo – 9th (39.0); FiveThirtyEight CARMELO – 9th (36.0)
The Heat let two crucial road games slip away from them in Golden State and Sacramento as they went 2-3 on a Western road trip in their run-up to the allstar break. They have lost six of their past eight games and are struggling to find consistency on offense or to gain traction in the win column. They’ve dropped from seventh to ninth in the standings in recent weeks.
Remaining games: 26 Remaining strength of schedule: .524 winning percentage/7th of 30
Toughest games: Bucks (twice), Raptors (twice), Celtics (twice), Nets (twice), Warriors, Thunder, 76ers, Rockets
Schedule: Like the Nets and Hornets, the Heat face a difficult closing stretch of games. Nine of their final 13 games are away from home, which could be a good thing for Heat, who are 15-14 on the road.
The Heat have a daunting back-to-back Feb. 27 and 28 as they host the Warriors, then travel to face the Rockets. The Heat also face a challenging four-game road trip in mid-March that takes them to Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Milwaukee and Washington. Those four teams have a combined home winning percentage of .732 so far this season.
Orlando Magic (27-32)
Currently: 10th
Predictions: BR – 7th (57.3); ESPN BPI – 9th (51.2); FiveThirtyEight Elo – 6th (73.0); FiveThirtyEight CARMELO – 6th (60.0)
Of the teams in this group, the Magic not only have the easiest path to the playoffs, based on the remaining strength of schedule, but they also are playing the best basketball. They’ve won five straight and seven of eight.
If over their final 23 games the Magic maintain their .700 winning percentage of the past 10 games, they will finish 43-39.
In addition, the Magic play 18 of their last 23 games against East opponents, against whom they are 19-15 this season. Remaining games: 23 Remaining strength of schedule: .460 winning percentage/28th of 30 Toughest games: Raptors (twice), Pacers (twice), Warriors, Celtics, 76ers Schedule: Road games at Toronto, Indiana and Philadelphia fall within the first seven games back from the all-star break. But after the 76ers game, the Magic will face seven straight opponents with records below .500. Plus, they still have to play the Knicks, Hawks and Cavs twice — teams they are a combined 5-0 against this season. The last week will be tough with games at Boston and Charlotte, which has beaten Orlando 13 of the past 14 meetings.