Will census show Latino boom?

Some fear funding and citizenship question could hinder 2020 count in Central Florida

Growing nationwide concern about a lack of resources for next year’s decennial census has hit home for advocates and experts in Central Florida, a closely watched region because of its rising Latino population and rapid growth.

Not having accurate census data can have far-reaching effects, as the once-every-decade survey impacts funding for roads, social services and businesses, as well as political representation, in the form of redistricting. In Central Florida, populations in Orange and Lake counties are expected to grow by nearly 30 percent by 2030, according to estimates by the Orlando Economic Partnership. Osceola County is projected to more than double its population; 76 percent of that growth expected to be in the Hispanic community.

“This is an opportunity for Hispanics to make themselves heard,” said Fernando Rivera, a sociology professor at the University of Central Florida. “There’s a possibility of creating new congressional districts, it’s important for us to know how many people live in a school district, for veterans … these are the official numbers.”

Rivera said flaws in the census are of particular concern to Florida, where an estimated tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans relocated after Hurricane María ravaged the island in 2017. Thousands of Venezuelans and Nicaraguans fleeing ongoing political and humanitarian crises at home are also estimated to have immigrated to Florida in recent years.

Most of the problems anticipated for the 2020 census are not new. The census has been underfunded for years, said Tom Wolf, an attorney who specializes in the census and redistricting at the Brennan Center for Justice in New York.

Wolf said young children, who rely on their parents to fill out the survey, are most likely to be left

out of the count. Residents who aren’t proficient in English, or who are in transitional living situations or homeless also tend to have low participation rates.

But experts say the typical hurdles for an accurate census have been aggravated by a controversial question proposed by the Trump administration — “Is this person a citizen of the United States?” — that some fear will dissuade non-citizens from participating.

“The biggest barrier is one that the Trump administration has created,” Wolf said. “This would mark the first time in American history that the census would try to ascertain the citizenship status of the entire country. … If communities are undercounted many federal programs are going to be underfunded.”

Wolf said it was “deeply illegal” for the census to be used for nonstatistical purposes, like immigration enforcement. “It stays inside the walls of the Commerce Department,” he said.

Rivera, a member of the American Sociological Association, which has objected to the citizen question, said it’s “always a challenge” to count the communities most likely to be discouraged by being asked about immigration status.

“And now we’re adding this anti-immigrant rhetoric. … It’s not a question that you ask so casually,” he said. “For academics, it’s super important. We can observe population trends, we can compare results. We can see changes in age groups, the changes in housing and socioeconomic status.”

Community groups last week announced a coalition of local officials and organizations, ¡Hágase Contar!, to target minority groups who have been undercounted in past censuses and help offset a lack of federal funding for practice field tests and outreach leading up to the 2020 census. The coalition aims to bring together groups with community ties who can raise awareness on the importance of filling out the census.

“We’re concerned regarding the dollars. Not enough dollars are coming into our communities, our state, our nation,” said Jackie Colón, Florida director for the non-partisan NALEO Educational Fund. “Therefore, it means that this is what needs to happen. We’re not waiting for the federal government, we’re stepping up.”

According to a recent study by the consulting firm Election Data Services, which monitors redistricting, Florida is on track to add at least two congressional seats following the 2020 census.

The Florida Legislature is tasked with redrawing the state’s congressional map. According to a report by the Tampa Bay Times, one of the fastest growing regions in the state is in Florida’s Ninth Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. Darren Soto, D-Kissimmee, and currently includes all of Osceola County and parts of Orange and Polk.

“You’re going to get two, potentially even three seats and the question is where would Tallahassee … put them,” said Kimball Brace, president at Election Data Services. “One would think it would be logical that that would go in that area but that is totally a political decision. … It will be dictated specifically by what will be happening this year.”

Advocates argue the 2020 census is an opportunity for new Latinos, specifically Puerto Ricans, to show their numbers and political power.

Jorge Vasquez, an attorney with LatinoJustice, said the census would also reveal how many Spanishspeaking households have been added in Florida. His organization filed a lawsuit last year to require Spanish-language sample ballots in Florida counties where they were not available. A new federal lawsuit is seeking to mandate bilingual ballots in 32 Florida counties by Aug. 1 due to the influx of Puerto Ricans to the state.

“I suspect there are other districts that also have a large number of Puerto Ricans and we’re just not informed of how many Puerto Ricans live in those districts,” Rivera said. “I think it’s also going to show the number of Puerto Ricans who’ve left the island.”

A count showing a booming Hispanic population could lead to a boost in a variety of services the community needs, he said.

“We talk about schools, we talk about daycare funds, we talk about SNAP, we talk about health programs, and we also talk about ... language assistance under the Voting Rights Act,” Vasquez said.

The best way to curb undercounting is to get the most vulnerable communities involved in the census process and team up with trusted organizations, advocates said.

“Central Florida, from Brevard County all the way to Hillsborough and everything in between, the entire I-4 corridor, we’re saying presente. We are not going to wait for all the dollars. We’re taking it upon ourselves to make sure that we’re counted,” Colón said.

“This would mark the first time in American history that the census would try to ascertain the citizenship status of the entire country.” Tom Wolf, attorney who specializes in the census and redistricting at Brennan Center for Justice in New York