Case numbers under-reported
Maxwell: Florida miscounts diagnosed COVID-19 patients, unemployed residents.
The two biggest coronavirus stories these days are the number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases and the number of people losing their jobs.
Florida is under-reporting both.
We aren’t conducting enough virus tests. And the state’s unemployment system is so flawed, it can’t even tell how many laid-off workers entitled to benefits.
In other words: We can’t even begin to understand the scope of this crisis in Florida — much less respond appropriately — because we don’t have accurate information.
But it looks much worse than what’s so far reported.
Let’s start with the testing. Florida has tested fewer people for the virus than Washington, a state less than half our size.
Even more troubling: The Florida tests show an even higher confirmation rate.
Think about that. Everyone knows Seattle and Washington are a mess, right? Well, according to the Covid Tracking Project’s weekend numbers, a higher percentage of tests are coming back positive in Florida (10%) than Washington (7.5%).
That suggests the only reason Florida hasn’t posted sky-high COVID counts is because we aren’t running enough tests … which keeps our tally artificially low.
Florida is focusing much of its testing on health care workers, first responders and those over 65, which means we can leave a large population walking around carrying the virus, capable of spreading it and yet undiagnosed.
Want another example? Louisiana. In that state, a whopping 12.7% of tests came back positive — a number so alarming that Gov. Ron DeSantis ordered any visitors from that state to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
But guess what? In MiamiDade, the case-confirmation rate
is even higher — 17% of all tests came back positive through last week, according to state records.
If you’re worried about a region at risk, Floridians don’t need to fret about Louisiana, they should look in their own backyard.
Imagine what those numbers would look like if Florida was testing enough people. U.S. Sen. Rick Scott did, going on Fox News Radio to declare Florida’s official case count of around 6,000 as woefully misleading, saying: “If we had as many tests done as New York’s had done… we probably would have 30,000 or 40,000 cases now.”
That would sure paint a different picture in a state that has been generally slow to act. Just last week, DeSantis suggested things may not really be that bad here, since some counties had no confirmed cases. Except a few of those counties hadn’t conducted a single test at the time. So how would we know?
We need more testing. Period. We also need an unemployment system that’s worth a damn.
Right now, the state’s unemployment count is also artificially deflated, thanks to a system incapable of processing all the applications.
Again, the numbers tell the story. During the third week of March — when national unemployment claims shattered records — the number of claims Florida reported was suspiciously low.
Nationally, 3.3 million people filed claims (about 1% of the entire U.S. population).
But in Florida, only 74,000 people filed claims (about 0.3% of the state’s population).
Floridians make up 6% of the U.S. population and yet accounted for only 2% of the unemployment claims.
That makes no mathematical sense for a state whose tourismbased economy is getting walloped way harder than most of America. Heck, the state’s own restaurant and lodging group estimated that 400,000 people had lost their jobs in that industry alone.
Yet Massachusetts, a state a third our size, processed twice as many unemployment claims.
DeSantis has since admitted the system is flawed and ordered improvements. But here’s the thing: We’ve known this system has been a cruel joke for nearly a decade — a $78 million online boondoggle designed to deny most people benefits.
We’ve written about this for years. Yet nobody cared … until the coronavirus turned a scorching-hot spotlight on the issue.
DeSantis is now hiring new workers to process applications. (Processed requests tripled last week.) And the state is trying to develop a mobile app to handle requests. (The fact there wasn’t a functioning mobile app — in
2020 — shows just how little anyone in power actually cared.)
Still, the state is littered with with stories of citizens unable to access benefits they’ve earned. I’ve probably fielded 100 emails from frustrated and furious Floridians in the past few days alone. They all say the same thing over and over. “No one answers the phone.” “The online application won’t let me in.” “When I finally get in, it kicks me off.”
Until that’s fixed, Florida’s unemployment count will remain artificially low … just like our coronavirus count.
So it’d be swell if leaders actually addressed these problems instead of playing politics with them.
Last weekend, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio posted a juvenile tweet that accused media members of being happy about all the people infected in the United States.
The post was mean-spirited, unproductive and factually flawed. But Rubio went on to complain that China isn’t providing accurate coronavirus numbers, saying: “We have NO IDEA how many cases China really has …”
That’s probably true. But guess what, Senator? You have “NO IDEA” how many cases there are in your own back yard. Where are your petty and petulant tweets about that?
Actually, we don’t need any more tweets. We need action.
Hospitals and county health departments don’t have enough tests.
In a recent piece from USA Today — “Florida, home to millions of elderly, doesn’t have enough coronavirus tests. Could it be the next epicenter?” — the paper documented a drivethrough testing site that ran out of tests and a community-hospital administrator who took out a $380,000 loan on his own home to secure tests he couldn’t otherwise attain.
That is tragically insane.
Sure, it’s easier to tweet than find solutions. But until this state accurately counts the number of people who have this virus and who qualify for unemployment benefits, we’re not going to be even close to solving this problem … because we can’t even quantify it.