Most states still fall short of recommended testing levels

WASHINGTON — As businesses reopened Friday in more of the U.S., an overwhelming majority of states still fall short of the COVID-19 testing levels that public health experts say are necessary to safely ease lockdowns and avoid another deadly wave of outbreaks, according to an Associated Press analysis of metrics developed by Harvard’s Global Health Institute.

Rapid, widespread testing is considered essential to tracking and containing the coronavirus, but 41 of the nation’s 50 states fail to test widely enough to drive their infections below a key benchmark. Among the states falling short are Texas and Georgia, which have moved aggressively recently to reopen stores, malls, barbershops and other businesses.

As health authorities expand testing to more people, the number of positive results should shrink compared with the total number of people tested.

The World Health Organization and other health researchers have said a percentage above 10% indicates inadequate testing. South Korea, a country praised for its rapid response, quickly pushed its positive cases to below 3%.

Most governors are moving ahead with unlocking their states, even in cases where they are not meeting broad guidelines recommended by the White House.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has set a goal of 30,000 tests per day as his state launched one of the nation’s most aggressive reopenings May 1. He never set a firm date on when the state would hit the 30,000 mark, but for most of May the daily testing numbers have fallen well short of that.

Researchers at Harvard University have calculated that the U.S. needs to test a minimum of 900,000 people per day to safely reopen the economy, based on the 10% positivity rate and several other key metrics. That goal is nearly three times the country’s current daily testing tally of about 360,000, according to figures compiled by the COVID Tracking Project website.

“The fact that testing has become the Achilles’ heel that has made it hard for us to have a great national response to this pandemic is a tragedy,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute.

President Donald Trump insisted again his administration had “met the moment” and “prevailed” on testing, even as he continued to shift responsibility for the effort to the governors. Administration officials said they will provide states with enough testing supplies to conduct about 400,000 tests per day in May and June, but that’s still less than half the total recommended by the Harvard team.

“I really do feel there are dangers here opening up without enough tests, but I don’t feel it’s a uniform danger everywhere in the country,” Jha said.

In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo will allow many smaller cities and rural regions of upstate New York to gradually reopen first in areas that have been spared the brunt of the coronavirus outbreak.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy will let individual shore towns decide when it comes to reopening beaches.