European Central Bank could boost stimulus

FRANKFURT, Germany — The European Central Bank could soon expand its anti-pandemic stimulus program to more than a trillion euros, giving it more firepower to keep the virus crisis from sliding into a new financial crisis for the 19 countries that use the euro.

Analysts say that the ECB’s 25-member governing council could decide as soon as its meeting Thursday to boost the socalled pandemic emergency purchase program by $558 billion, bringing it to $1.4 trillion.

Under the program, the central bank buys government and corporate bonds with newly printed money, a step that helps keep a lid on borrowing costs for businesses and governments.

That’s particularly relevant in the case of Italy, whose already-large debt pile is expected to balloon from the current 135% of annual economic output as a result of the huge costs involved in managing the virus outbreak. Loss of market confidence in Italy’s creditworthiness could see its sovereign borrowing costs rise — and turn the virus crisis into a financial crisis for the entire 19-country eurozone.

The currency union’s vulnerability to market turmoil was underlined by a 2010-15 debt crisis that saw Greece and four other member countries need massive bailout loans from the other members and the International Monetary Fund.

Right now, Italy’s market borrowing costs are under control, thanks in part to purchases of its bonds by the ECB under the pandemic program. The ECB says the program is not targeting help for Italy specifically.

But boosting the potential amount sooner rather than later would signal to markets that the bank is ready to take forceful action to make sure its low interest rates reach all parts of the currency union.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, estimates there is a 60% chance that the central bank will decide to boost its pandemic stimulus program at Thursday’s meeting. If it doesn’t, he says the central bank could so in July.

The ECB could also lengthen the pandemic stimulus program’s duration, now slated to run through the end of 2020.