Election concerns rise amid pandemic

Steps to qualify for state races unclear due to social distancing orders

TALLAHASSEE — Candidates for legislative races can begin to qualify starting Monday, kicking off a week that could test the state’s elections officials, who must contend with constraints amid the global pandemic.

The election itself is crucial for Democrats looking to gain enough seats to disrupt the GOP’s advantage ahead of the all-important task of redistricting in 2022, and a Central Florida race for an open seat in the Senate is being targeted by both political parties.

For qualifying, it’s unclear if the Division of Elections will allow for candidates to submit their papers in-person. Its website says its offices are closed to the public until further notice. A spokesman for the Florida Department of State, which houses the Division of Elections, did not return several calls and emails this week.

The agency passed emergency rules last month allowing for candidates to collect electronic signatures for petitions and submit them via email, but procrastinating candidates often scramble to qualify in the Tallahassee offices in person on the last day of qualifying.

Normally, signatures must be in ink and gathered in person, but the social distancing measures required by the response to the

coronavirus prevented most candidates from going door-to-door to collect them. Candidates can also opt to qualify with a $1,782 check. Qualifying begins Monday at noon and ends at noon Friday.

GOP versus Democrats

Currently, Republicans outnumber Democrats 23-17 in the Senate and 73-46 in the House. Democrats have been chipping away at the GOP advantage over the past decade, and hope to gain three seats in the Senate – enough for a 20-20 split and more bargaining power when legislative maps are redrawn.

If Republicans retain a solid Senate majority, they could pass maps that heavily favor the GOP for the next decade. Although voters passed the anti-gerrymandering Fair Districts amendments in 2010, a new conservative majority on the Florida Supreme Court could give lawmakers more leeway in drawing new lines.

“Getting as close to a tie as possible (in the Senate) is going to be important for redistricting,” said Matt Isbell, a Tallahassee-based Democratic operative. “The Democrats’ best hope is to be very close in the Senate.”

In the Senate, District 9 is a key target.

Sen. David Simmons, RAltamonte Springs, can’t run again because of term limits. The district includes Seminole County and part of Volusia County. The district voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton 49-45 percent in 2016 and 49.6-49.2 percent for Republican Ron DeSantis over Democrat Andrew Gillum in the governor’s race in 2018.

Former state Rep. Jason Brodeur is the only Republican in the race and has gotten a head start, running for the seat since 2017 and raising nearly $3 million and spending more than $2.2 million between his campaign and an affiliated political committee combined.

Five Democrats — Frederick Ashby, Alexis Carter, Alexander Duncan, Guerdy Remy and Patricia Sigman – have signed up for the race, but only Sigman has raised significant funds and has the backing of the Florida Democratic establishment.

Sigman and Brodeur each said the pandemic has disrupted their campaigns but are using technology to reach out to voters.

“While we don’t have the big team canvassing door to door right now that we had planned, we built a really robust phone bank and we’re connecting with voters in multiple ways,” Sigman said.

Brodeur says he’s stopped sending fundraising pitches to supporters, at least for now, but hopes to lift that moratorium soon as Florida begins to reopen.

“You’ve got to be sensitive to what’s going on with every family — they might’ve lost their job they might have a sick family member that they’re caring for; there’s a lot going on right now,” Brodeur said. “There will be some delicate getting back in, so to speak, as we move closer to the election. If campaigns are about connecting but we can’t afford to connect with anyone that’s going to be a problem.”

A new open seat

The strategies of the major parties was altered somewhat by the resignation of Sen. Tom Lee, RThonotosassa, last week, who is leaving to run for the Hillsborough County Clerk position. He still had two years left in his term, but the District 20 seat is now open, giving Democrats another opportunity to gain a seat.

In the Central Florida House races, Democrats are targeting District 29, held by Rep. Scott Plakon, RLongwood, which covers part of Seminole County. The district voted 50-48 percent for DeSantis over Gillum in 2018. Plakon won a narrow victory over Democrat Tracey Kagan as well and faces a rematch with Kagan again.

“Scott’s a good campaigner but we’ve also watched as his margins of victory have consistently shrunk over the last decade,” said Rep. Evan Jenne, D-Dania Beach, slated to be a co-leader of House Democrats and the leader of House Democratic campaign efforts.

But Democrats also will have to defend seats in swing districts where they won slim victories in 2018. Republicans are confident of holding and possibly expanding their 27-seat advantage in the House.

“The I-4 corridor is always a focal point every election cycle and this is Florida, so there [are] a lot of purple areas in the state that are close districts, and we intend to compete in all of them and we intend to win,” said Rep. Chris Sprowls, R-Palm Harbor, who is set to become House Speaker after the elections.

Rep. Geraldine Thompson, whose District 44 includes western Orange County, won by 2.6 percent in 2018, the second-lowest margin of victory for a House Democrat. Republicans Frank Blanco and Bruno Portigliatti are set to square off in the primary to see who will challenge Thompson in the general election.

Former Rep. Bob Cortes, an Altamonte Springs Republican, has signed up for a rematch with Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil, D-Maitland, for the District 30 seat, which covers parts of Orange and Seminole counties, after losing to her by 5.9 percent in 2018.

Targeting Democrats

Republicans are also eyeing their own pickups in vulnerable Democratic seats elsewhere in the state. The Republican State Leadership Committee, a national GOP group backing legislative candidates, said last week it was targeting three seats with Democratic incumbents which voted for Trump in 2016.

District 72 in Sarasota, is occupied by Rep. Margaret Good, who is leaving to run for Congress; District 69 covers part of Pinellas County and is held by Rep. Jennifer Webb; District 84 covers part of St. Lucie County and is held by Rep. Dolores Hogan-Johnson.

“Leftist mega-donors are standing ready, willing to sign blank checks to buy up legislative majorities across the nation — and Florida is squarely in their crosshairs,” said Bill McCollum, RSLC chairman and a former Florida congressman and attorney general. “Republicans are ready to fight back and protect the legislative majorities that have been critical to Florida’s rise as one of the best states in the country to raise a family or start a business. It’s all on the line in this election cycle.”

Jenne, though, said he’s prepared to be outspent by Republicans backed by large business interests in most battleground races. Yet the disruption of fundraising due to the coronavirus could work in Democrats’ favor by lessening the gap Republicans typically have in resources.

Given the perilous state of the country, amid the pandemic and widespread unrest sparked by the killing of an unarmed black man in Minneapolis, Jenne didn’t want to make a prediction on how the election would go.

“Everything in this country right now is kind of up in the air,” Jenne said. “There’s a lot going on and that’s going to have an impact at the polls one way or the other.”