US still stuck in 1st wave, experts say
Scientists fear public has false sense that worst may be over
What’s all this talk about a “second wave” of U.S. coronavirus cases?
In The Wall Street Journal last week, Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a piece headlined “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’ ” that the nation is winning the fight against the virus.
Many public health experts, however, suggest it’s no time to celebrate. About 120,000 Americans have died from the virus and daily counts of new cases in the U.S. are the highest they’ve been in more than a month, driven by alarming recent increases in the South and West. U.S. infections stand at more than 2.2 million.
In the United States, the number of newly confirmed cases per day has risen from about 21,400 two weeks ago to 23,200, according to an Associated Press analysis. And Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas — states that loosened their stay-at-home restrictions early — daily deaths have been quietly rising since early June.
Rising case numbers can partially be explained by the wider availability of testing. Mild cases, previously undetected because of limits on who could be tested, are now showing up in the numbers.
But there is at least one point of agreement: “Second wave” is probably the wrong term to describe what’s happening.
“When you have 20,000plus infections per day, how can you talk about a second wave?” said Dr. Anthony
Fauci of the National Institutes of Health. “We’re in the first wave. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.”
Clearly there was an initial infection peak in April as cases exploded in New York City. After schools and businesses were closed across the country, the rate of new cases dropped somewhat.
But “it’s more of a plateau, or a mesa,” not the trough after a wave, said Caitlin Rivers, a disease researcher at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.
Scientists generally agree the nation is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections, albeit one that’s dipping in some parts of the country while rising in others.
“This virus is spreading around the United States and hitting different places with different intensity at different times,” said Dr. Richard Besser, chief executive of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, who was acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention when a pandemic flu hit the U.S. in 2009.
Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan flu expert, echoed that sentiment.
“What I would call this is continued transmission with flare-ups,” he said.
Flu seasons sometimes feature a second wave of infections.
But in those cases, the second wave is a distinct new surge in cases from a strain of flu that is different from the strain that caused earlier illnesses.
That’s not the case in the coronavirus epidemic.
Monto doesn’t think “second wave” really describes what’s happening now, calling it “totally semantics.”
“Second waves are basically in the eye of the beholder,” he said.
But Besser said semantics matter, because saying a first wave has passed may give people a false sense that the worst is over.
To that end, Spain reopened its borders to European tourists Sunday in a bid to kick-start its economy while Brazil and South Africa struggled with rising coronavirus infections.
At the same time, businesses in states like Florida are reevaluating decisions to reopen their doors after Florida reported nearly 3,500 more new coronavirus cases Sunday.
Some experts worry a large wave of coronavirus might occur this fall or winter — after schools reopen, the weather turns colder and less humid, and people huddle inside more.
That would follow seasonal patterns seen with flu and other respiratory viruses. And such a fall wave could be very bad, given that there’s no vaccine or experts think most Americans haven’t had the virus.
But the new coronavirus has been spreading more episodically and sporadically than flu, and it may not follow the same playbook.
“It’s very difficult to make a prediction,” Rivers said. “We don’t know the degree to which this virus is seasonal, if at all.”