Center predicts 10th named storm
Meteorologists are waiting for Tropical Depression 11 to become the tenth tropical storm of the year, which was forecast to happen befrore this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. update.
Should it do so, it will be named Tropical Storm Josephine.
TD 11 formed Tuesday afternoon after gaining stronger organization to its center and losing its elongated circulation.
TD 11 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, as of the 5 p.m. update. The storm is moving west toward the Caribbean at 15 mph and is about 1,220 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
It is expected to begin turning northwest Wednesday evening due to an easterly flow of a strong subtropical ridge north of TD 11. Hurricane models show the storm gradually growing in strength within the next 48 hours, and should accumulate enough energy to become the tenth tropical storm of the year.
But looking at this storm in the long term, it doesn’t have much a future, said FOX 35 meteorologist Glenn Richards.
“Over the weekend it’s going to encounter a lot of wind sheer and dry air due to the Saharan Air Layer,” Richards said. “It’s going to weaken the system as it gradually turns north.”
The Saharan Air Layer is a plume of beige dust that whips off the African continent every year and into the upper atmosphere, which then blows into the tropical Atlantic region.
The dust acts as a hurricane shield to the area by absorbing moisture and disturbing the still air with wind sheer. However, the SAL is expected to peak next week meaning less dry dust will be occupying the air.
While its hard to say whether Florida or any other coastal communities should fret, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s path models show the storm eventually spinning northeast into the upper Atlantic. However, there is at least one path projected with the storm making landfall in North Carolina.
Models indicate that all paths have the storm passing through the Caribbean islands.
With no threat to Florida at this time, Richards predicts the storm will also be too far out in the Atlantic to have an impact on Central Florida’s weather, but it could generate dangerous waves and riptide conditions on Florida shores next week.
The season has seen nine named storms including two hurricanes plus the short-lived Tropical Depression 10. Richards is surprised the storm count is already so high this season.
“It might be the highest it’s ever been in my 27-year career here in Central Florida,” Richards said.”And we’re only in the middle of August.”
The high storm count goes hand-in-hand with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s adjusted 2020 tropical storm forecast, which predicts a total of 19 to 25 named storms before the end of the season on Nov. 30 - the most NOAA has ever predicted in a season.
The other remaining names for 2020 are Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
If the total amount of 2020 storms exceeds the designated name list, hurricane specialists will begin using letters from the Greek alphabet to name storm; a tactic meteorologists have only had to use once before in 2005, which had a total of 28 named storms.