Parts of Florida under Tropical Storm Watch

Portions of the Florida Keys and South Florida are under a Tropical Storm Watch as Tropical Depression Fred drifts toward the Sunshine State, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday night.

The watch is in effect for the Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.

“Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect,” the NHC said. “The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.”

Forecasters say Fred remains poorly organized.

“While the low-level circulation looks more closed than it did earlier, the center is broad and may have multiple vortices rotating around it,” said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven.

Fred was 485 miles east-southeast of Key West, and 240 miles southeast of Southern Andros Island, Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph Thursday night, the NHC said

The sixth named storm of the season is located between eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas but is continuing to pour heavy rains over portions of Hispaniola. The depression is expected to gain power again, but it should be a slow climb between now and this weekend when it is expected to cruise along Florida’s west coast. The system is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. Its forward speed is expected to slow in the next day.

The latest cone of uncertainty saw a continued shift west so that most of Central Florida is out of the projected path, although the effects could still be felt with most rainfall usually to the northeast of the tropical system’s center.

Meteorologists have a better image of Fred now that it’s isolated in open waters. Recon flights and satellite data have shown Fred’s circulation is not closed, said

Beven.

“Based on the evidence of the closed circulation, the system will be maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. However, the structure is currently closer to that of an open wave than a normal tropical cyclone,” Beven said.

Long-range forecasts have Fred parked off Key West on Saturday with a restored tropical storm status and 45 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 50 mph. It’s then projected to grow in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida Coast with 60 mph sustained winds and 70 mph gusts. A potential Monday landfall is predicted in the Florida panhandle near Eastpoint.

Fred formed Tuesday night and defied forecasts of passing through Puerto Rico, much to the relief of residents. However, the island territory was impacted and reported 13,000 customers without power, according to Associated Press.

Fred weakened to a tropical depression Wednesday night after fighting a losing battle with the Hispaniola mountain range, the NHC said. Fred’s battle scars took the form of a stretched-out circulation and resemble a trough at its surface, according to satellite data.

“Historically, when storms move over Hispaniola, their flow can weaken, and its structure can become unorganized, and the systems fall apart or weaken considerably,” said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Maureen McCann.

Fred may have weakened over Hispaniola, but it gave the Dominican Republic its fair share of punches before departing. Some 300,000 customers were without power in the Dominican Republic. More than a half-million were affected by swollen rivers that forced part of the aqueduct system to shut down, government officials reported.

Fred re-emerged into the Caribbean, where waters are in a tropical-ideal temperature of 83 degrees, according to Spectrum News 13 measurements. However, it’s also taking bombardment from a 24 mph vertical wind shear, which is expected to maintain throughout Thursday. That, combined with some land interaction from Cuba, prevented Fred from regaining its tropical storm status Thursday. However, those hurdles seem to be a temporary hindrance.

The GEFS and the European storm models largely agree the storm will hug Florida’s big bend and push west as a tropical storm. That could spell trouble for Central Florida as the dirty side of the storm, the side with the strongest winds, historically has created the potential for tornadoes in the area, McCann said.

Using model data, the NHC predicts Fred could drop 5 inches of rain across the Keys and the southern Florida peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

“Whether it’s this storm or another, be prepared. We are re-entering the most active part of hurricane season,” McCann said. “The long-range forecast shows there is something else behind Fred. We must be on guard and prepared.”

A Tropical Storm Watch remains for parts of Cuba.

Also in the tropics, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave Tuesday afternoon a few a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, associated with a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Meteorologists predict the wave could become a tropical depression by next week while trailing behind Fred. The NHC gave it a 70% chance of developing in the next two to five days, according to the Thursday night update.

In the mean time, Central Florida leaders are keeping an eye on Fred, just in case it rapidly intensifies, said Orange County Emergency Management Chief Lauraleigh Avery.

“We are monitoring both systems closely (Fred & the next system) and making all preparation in case of any strengthening over the next few days,” Avery said. “At this time we are expecting a couple of inches of rain and some winds but as we know, these storms can change tracks so all departments are in the process of preparing. With the amount of rainfall that has occurred over the last few weeks, we are also closely monitoring the current status of all lakes, the areas that normally flood, and our roadways.”