GOP looking ahead to big ’22 even while challenges persist
WASHINGTON — Not long ago, the Republican Party was hitting bottom.
The GOP had lost the presidency and House in November 2020 and would soon squander its Senate majority early in 2021 — then watch with horror as supporters of then-President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol last Jan. 6.
What a difference a year makes.
A resurgent GOP is now poised to reclaim one or both congressional chambers in 2022, while retaining its lock on dozens of state legislatures and governor’s offices. Republican confidence is fueled by President Joe Biden’s underwhelming poll numbers, a Democratic economic and social agenda that’s faltering, intensifying concerns about inflation, and deepening frustration with the pandemic.
At its most basic level, though, GOP optimism is born of the same political headwinds that have shaped U.S. politics for decades. The party that controls the White House has a tremendous disadvantage in the first election of a new presidency.
“We’re going to have a hell of a year,” said Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who leads the national GOP’s Senate campaign arm.
Republicans dominated last fall’s elections across Virginia, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, even in areas Biden easily carried in 2020.
Democratic strategists acknowledge being concerned about a wave of Democratic congressional retirements, Republican-controlled state legislatures reshaping House districts, a struggle to enact Biden’s leading
campaign promises, and a disengaged political base.
Yet Republicans face their own significant challenges. A Supreme Court decision expected next summer that could dramatically erode or dismantle abortion rights could galvanize Democratic supporters.
But Trump himself is an even bigger wild card.
The former president has waged war against fellow Republicans whom he deems insufficiently loyal. Some GOP operatives also fear that Trump’s lies about election fraud could depress turnout among is loyalists.
“We just have to limit the damage that he’s causing,” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a member of the Republican Governors Association’s executive board.
“If we have big battles in primaries, either we’re going to nominate people who are unelectable in purple states or swing districts, or we’re going to beat up our incumbents so bad that they lose the general election,” added Hogan.
Republican-controlled legislatures have aided the Republicans’ potential House fortunes by drawing new congressional districts
that are even more favorable to the party.
Many Republican legislatures have also enacted laws making it more difficult to vote in response to Trump’s false claims of voter fraud. That’s expected to disproportionately affect Democratic-leaning African Americans and Latinos.
Representing the Democratic Party’s most reliable base of support, many Black voters are also frustrated by the party’s inability to enact policing overhauls in response to the outcry that followed George Floyd’s murder over a year ago.
Some Democrats insist there is cause for optimism. No issue may be bigger than a looming Supreme Court decision on abortion rights. The conservative-leaning court will weigh whether to weaken or even overturn the decision that legalized abortion nationwide.
Democrats are hopeful that a major shift on the politically charged case would help rally suburban women — voters who lifted the party during the 2018 midterms. “We are the tortoise and they are the hare,” said New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, head of the House Democratic campaign arm.