‘It’s going to be historic’
Hurricane warning issued as storm moves closer to landfall
Powerful Hurricane Ian pushed toward Florida on Tuesday with a likely landfall on the southwest coast late Wednesday, putting metro Orlando under a hurricane warning and bringing potentially “catastrophic” flooding and hurricane-force gusts to Central Florida, forecasters said.
“It’s going to be historic,” said National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologist Kole Fehling in Melbourne.
Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake were all put under hurricane warnings after the 5 p.m. storm update.
The Category 3 storm’s path shifted south of Tampa Bay and was predicted to come ashore near Venice, according to the advisory by the NHC, lessening the potential chance of massive storm surges in Tampa Bay but putting Orlando squarely in its path.
Fehling said Central Florida could expect 15 to 20 inches of rainfall, with localized rainfall of up to 24 inches. By comparison, the most rainfall that Orlando has ever experienced over a three-day period has been 13.75 inches.
“The normal value for the amount of rainfall over the entire year is about 52 inches,”
Fehling said. “So if we were to see those higher- end totals, we could be experiencing half of our total annual rainfall in a very short period of time.”
He also predicted sustained winds of 55 to 65 mph in the region, with hurricane-force gusts of up to 80 mph.
The strongest winds are expected to arrive Thursday evening, along with the risk of tornadoes to the area as well.
More than 2.5 million people from Pasco County north of Tampa Bay south to Collier County had been told to evacuate from the dangerous storm.
As of 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center put the
center of 500-mile wide Ian in the Gulf of Mexico about 265 miles south of Sarasota and 85 miles south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas after making landfall at 4:30 a.m. on the western side of Cuba. Moving at 10 mph, hurricane-force winds extended out 35 miles with tropical storm winds out 140 miles.
Ian’s encounter with Cuba dropped its sustained winds from 125 mph to 115 mph at 11 a.m., but it quickly regained strength to 120 mph. The NHC expects it to strengthen further into a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and 165 mph gusts in the Gulf of Mexico before turning, slowing down its forward speed and striking Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The updated track has shifted the consensus landfall near Venice south of Sarasota with 125 mph sustained winds and 155 mph gusts by 8 p.m. Wednesday.
“We were here 48 hours ago and most of the solutions had it going up the coast — the west coast of Florida,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis during a press conference from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “Now most of them have it ramming into the state of Florida and cutting across and so just be prepared for that and understand that that’s something that could be happening.”
Earlier models Tuesday had the storm potentially tracking right into Tampa Bay.
Impacts will be felt far broader than where the hurricane ultimately makes landfall, DeSantis said, urging people along the Gulf coast to heed warnings and evacuation orders from their local officials. Also, he said, remember you don’t have to evacuate hundreds of miles, just seek higher, dryer ground.
“Mother nature is a fierce adversary,” he said.
He said every one of the state’s long-term care facilities in the state has an active generator on site with the threat of major power outages this week.
The shift in projected path Tuesday prompted the NHC to extend the hurricane warning along Florida’s west coast farther south so it now runs from Bonita Beach up to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs including all of Tampa Bay as well as the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was issued for North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River as well as from Bonita Beach south to Chokoloskee.
County emergency officials in Seminole County said certain areas including along the Wekiva River and Lake Harney are among those at risk.
“Regardless of where the storm goes exactly, this will be a flooding event,” said Alan Harris, Seminole’s director of the office for emergency management. “We could see some areas receive up to 15 inches of rain.”
Harris urged residents who live along the Wekiva and Little Wekiva rivers, and along the St. Johns River, to prepare their properties for flooding. He compared Hurricane Ian’s impact on Central Florida as similar to 2017 s Hurricane Irma but lasting longer because of the storm forecast to stall.
He calculated that the storm’s winds and rain will likely start by Wednesday afternoon and continue until early Friday.
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who declared a state of emergency on Monday, urged all residents to prepare emergency kits and review disaster plans.
“Make sure you have your supplies, all your medicine and your food and water,” Dyer said. “Today is your last day to get prepared, if you haven’t already done so, do what you need to do, have a family plan in the next few days.”
Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando all announced they would be closed Wednesday and Thursday.
The Central Florida YMCA said all of its locations would shut down today and Thursday with plans to reopen at noon Friday if weather permits.
Orlando International Airport said it would shut down at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday. Orlando Sanford International Airport said it would close after its final flight of the day, scheduled to depart at 4 p.m. Tuesday.
Gatorland hadn’t shut down as of Tuesday afternoon, but it was taking precautions by placing birds and big cats into shelters. The alligators and crocodiles, however, take care of themselves.
“Folks, they’ve been around for 75 million years. It ain’t their first rodeo with nasty storms,” said Gatorland President and CEO Mark McHugh in a video posted online.
After the storm passes, the staff will make a sweep of the grounds to make sure enclosures haven’t been breached, McHugh said.
“If you see an alligator swimming down your street or sitting in your pool, it ain’t one of ours,” he said.