System poses flood threat
Hurricane center predicts rain over parts of Florida
The National Hurricane Center continues to track a system forming in the Gulf of Mexico expected to dump rainfall over a good portion of Florida as it slowly moves toward the state into the weekend.
In its 8 p.m. tropical update, the NHC stated the low pressure area has formed over the northeastern gulf with disorganized showers and thunderstorms to its northeast.
“Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” according to NHC forecasters. “However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula.”
The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days, and 20% in the next seven days.
Its slow migration toward the state, though, is expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds from Wednesday into the early weekend as moisture from the system mixes with the normal summer pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms related to heating throughout the day, according to the National Weather Service.
Rainfall totals could average around 2 inches in some areas of Central Florida with as much as 3 inches closer to Lake Okeechobee, leading to localized flooding and standing water, the NWS warned.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but the NHC reviewed data from a January storm and confirmed it was technically the season’s first tracked system, an unnamed subtropical storm.
So the first tropical depression of the season would be named Tropical Depression Two, and the first named system of the year would be Tropical Storm Arlene.