Florida voters head to the polls
GOP primary could be glimpse into potential protest vote against Trump; municipal races held in Orange
Republicans statewide and voters who live in eight cities in Orange County can head to the polls today for the GOP presidential primary and municipal elections.
Polling places are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Ex-President Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination last week, but former rivals such as Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley remain as choices because of a state deadline that put them on the ballot before they dropped out. Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ryan Binkley also remain on the ballot.
Expectations of real surprises are low, but today’s primary election could be a key test of whether any meaningful protest vote against Trump among Republicans exists.
“If there is a significant protest vote, it does suggest that could be trouble for Trump in the general election, despite polls showing that right now he’s [leading],” said Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.
But, Jewett added, “If Trump wins with say 90% or more, then that would certainly suggest that once again the Republican Party is Trump’s party and that the rankand-file are lining up behind him very strongly.”
Trump continued to antagonize
DeSantis, and possibly his supporters, on Saturday. At the same Ohio rally where he said there would be a “bloodbath for the country” if he loses, Trump compared battling the Florida governor during the campaign to fighting the terrorist group ISIS and said, “we hit this guy so hard … He’s a shell of a man.”
Florida Democrats are not holding a primary this year, with the state party executive committee instead choosing to back President Joe Biden. That decision could hurt Democrats in down-ballot municipal races.
With many parts of the state not holding local elections, Republicans outvoted Democrats and independents statewide in early and mail ballots with nearly 91% of the nearly 800,000 votes cast.
But Democrats also are being outvoted by large margins in counties with local elections, including in Orange, where Republicans made up more than 76% of the early and mail ballots cast, election records show.
Republicans also made up 70% of voters at the Apopka early voting site, where two council seats are on the ballot, and 65% of voters at the Winter Garden location, where two city commission seats are up for grabs.
“Democrats may have made a strategic mistake to not allow a primary to be held in Florida,” Jewett said. “Even if it ended up being a coronation for Biden, at least it would have given their party faithful a reason to show up.”
All local races in Orange County are nonpartisan so anyone registered to vote can participate.
High-profile races in politically active Winter Park, which has a heated mayor’s race, and Maitland, which is deciding whether to approve a $14 million bond for a new library, could still bring people to the polls regardless of party.
The early voting numbers bear that out a bit. At the
closest early voting site to Winter Park and Maitland, the Winter Park Library, Republicans made up a relatively smaller 57% of voters.
Even so, Jewett said while local elections had historically been set for March to avoid partisanship, the line between national and local politics has increasingly become blurred.
“We see national party ideologies injected into local races sometimes,” he said. “… The average voter is not particularly interested in local politics. If there’s a national race, they’ll turn out for that. And while they’re there, they may vote for the local races as well.”
In counties without local elections, Republican turnout is low for a presidential race that has essentially concluded.
“What turnout?” said election supervisor Alan Hays of Lake County, which is seeing less than 10% of those eligible among Republicans, including just a 2.5% early in-person turnout following Haley’s withdrawal.
“I really don’t know what to expect,” Hays said of the rare election where only one party is voting in a race with no real opposition.
“This is the first time we’ve ever faced that scenario.”