Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Packer Plus
Evaluation by position adds context on cap decisions
Understanding the Green Bay Packers’ needs and offseason plans first require knowing where the roster stands exiting the 2021 season and entering 2022.
Going through position by position helps paint a clear picture of what GM Brian Gutekunst is facing this offseason, both from a personnel and salary cap standpoint.
Here’s a breakdown of the Packers’ roster at every position, with players under contract for 2022, free agents, early thoughts on the position groups and a unique cap perspective from Ken Ingalls, a CPA who studies the salary cap.
Cap lowdown
Here are Ken’s initial thoughts on the cap and the Packers’ offseason:
“This 2022 offseason for the Packers is going to be very challenging to navigate through as they face considerable financial constraints in being $52.2 million over the projected salary cap with their current roster of only 50 players and 23 players facing pending free agency, many of whom are household names among Packers fans. Having said that – the team has plenty of options to get back into the positive side of the salary cap and they absolutely have several scenarios mapped out to best achieve their goals.
“My motto leading up to and through this off-season has been ‘There are no absolutes – only choices. The Packers can bring back any player you want them to, they just can’t bring them all back.’ The Packers, led by Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball, must find the delicate balance between 1) Making the moves needed to climb out of their current salary cap hole, 2) Constructing a competitive roster worthy of another title run, and 3) Limiting how much salary cap burden they push into future years along the way.”
Here is the position-by-position breakdown:
Quarterback
Under contract (4): Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Danny Etling Free agents (0): None
Early thoughts: Rodgers will likely be the NFL’s MVP for the second straight year, but he has a decision to make on his future, and the team can’t start executing its own plan until he determines what he wants to do for 2022. His options are to retire, return to Green Bay or request a trade. Expect a decision in the next month. Love is entering Year 3, and the Packers brought back Benkert and Etling on futures deals, ensuring there’s depth at quarterback regardless of Rodgers’ decision. If Rodgers isn’t back, Love’s development will be thrust into the spotlight. Is he ready to be a starter? At least publicly, the Packers have said they want Rodgers back in 2022. The Packers would be contenders again with the future Hall of Famer under center for another season. Everything would be far more uncertain with Love.
Ken’s cap perspective
The quarterback position obviously comes down to the future of Aaron Rodgers. I’ve been firm since April 2020 I believe the Packers trade him in 2022, but let’s dig into their options. His contract currently sits first in cost at an enormous $46.7 million cap hit and there is 0% chance he plays for the Packers this season on this contract as it is currently written. Technically there are lots of ways this could go, but realistically I only see two paths forward: The Packers either extend Aaron Rodgers on a long-term deal or they trade him to another team. Reworking his deal for one more year, taking less money, or retiring seem off the table for me. If they extend Rodgers, it could provide $10-15 million in savings and cap flexibility before the March 16th deadline to be under the league salary cap. If their choice is to trade Rodgers, things get a bit tighter as they need to hold onto his contract until after the March 16th deadline as trades are not allowed beforehand, even if a deal is reported earlier than this (as we have seen in past blockbuster deals). This means his cap savings if traded of $19.8 million would not be available until after free agency has begun, making signing free agents and their ability to wield the franchise tag much more difficult.
Jordan Love’s deal is fully guaranteed, and the Packers must decide on whether to exercise his 5th year option clause after the 2022 season. Ideally, they see him in some extended action before making this decision as the fifthyear is a massive, guaranteed salary likely in the $20+ million range.
Circling back to Rodgers and if he does stay on a long-term deal, I see the Packers somewhat forced to trade Love elsewhere as he and his agent would want Love to have a realistic path to a starting opportunity.
Kurt Benkert is back and is the leading candidate to be QB2 or QB3 depending on how things play out. I could see the Packers bring in another arm or two, maybe even in the draft.
Running back
Under contract (4): Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor
Free agents (0): None
Early thoughts: This might be the most stable position on the entire roster. Jones and Dillon return as the 1-2 punch after each gained over 1,000 total yards in 2021, and both Hill and Taylor have flashed the skillsets necessary to be a capable No. 3 running back. There is depth, young talent and cheap contracts, and no free agents to worry about. The Packers could go into 2022 with the best backfield in football.
Ken’s cap perspective
The running back room is locked and loaded with the Packers having their top four players back under contract this season and with their top three in Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and Kylin Hill all locked up through at least 2023. Jones has the 10th highest cap hit on the current roster at almost $9 million and is a lock to restructure his contract to free up between $2.5-3.1 million for 2022. Dillon, Hill, and
Taylor are all on cheap rookie or minimum deals ineligible for any cap saving restructures and are all likely on this roster for training camp. The Packers could add another name via the draft, but as immediate needs go this group is one of the lowest.
Wide receiver
Under contract (5): Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Rico Gafford, Chris Blair
Free agents (5): Davante Adams, Allen Lazard (restricted), Marquez ValdesScantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: Arguably no position on the roster needs more work, and no position looks more difficult to navigate financially. Cobb might be under contract, but he won’t be back at his current price in 2022. Will Adams get the franchise tag? Can the Packers afford to use the restricted tender on Lazard? Is there enough money to bring back ValdesScantling? The Packers may need to add 2-3 new players (at least) to this position group during the offseason.
Ken’s cap perspective
I’ve been discussing the contract issues the Packers face in 2022 within the wide receiver group for over two years and now here we are with little done over that time the remedy the situation. The wide receiver position is a mess. Randall Cobb is the veteran of the group, and the next most experienced player is Juwann Winfree. Cobb’s cap hit of $9.5 million is the eighth-highest on the team and is a near lock to be cut from the roster to save $6.7 million. There remains a chance he could take a significant pay cut to stick around, which could save up to $6.8 million if he goes down all the way to the veteran minimum. We can’t ignore the importance of Cobb’s relationship with Aaron Rodgers – it’s no mystery the reason Cobb was wearing the green & gold last year was because of Rodgers’ demands. This could muddy the roster building waters if the Packers are forced to balance Rodgers’ happiness and prudent business decisions.
Davante Adams is an unrestricted free agent and there is talk about the Packers planning on placing the franchise tag on Adams to either force him to stay, or to trade him away for a premium package of draft picks. Their cap situation
makes this very difficult to pull off. Similar to the timeline I discussed with trading Aaron Rodgers, the order of operations around the franchise tag is an obstacle given their large negative cap balance.
To franchise tag Adams (it doesn’t matter if they intend to keep or trade him) the Packers would be charged $20.12 million against their salary cap and then need to get past the March 16th deadline with this amount on their books. Depending on what other cap saving moves the Packers can/cannot pull off this becomes a daunting task as we get closer to the deadline and could ultimately prove to be near impossible. Even if they can work the numbers, there is a huge opportunity cost to having the $20.12 million tag on the books – they could probably bring back 4-5 other top free agents for this amount but instead risk allowing them to be exposed to outside suitors via free agency.
The most likely path to Adams returning in 2022 has always been via a long-term deal and avoiding the franchise tag but they face a tough negotiation. Adams has made no secret he expects to become the highest paid WR in the NFL. Adams will point to DeAndre Hopkins’ reported $27.5 million per year deal as the one to beat, but the Packers will argue (and I agree) this deal is highly misleading and is closer to a $18.9 million per year deal. A hurdle in front of the
Packers is that the Packers honored a similar ambiguous contract when they made David Bakhtiari the highest paid tackle over Laremy Tunsil.
I expect to hear lots of “negotiating through the media” as these talks could go off the rails and could end in any result of him walking, signing long-term, being tagged & traded, or tagged ending in a deal, no new deal, and/or a hold out. My guess that Adams plays elsewhere in 2022.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are unrestricted free agents – it wouldn’t surprise me if neither are back this season. The Packers need receivers so maybe one comes back especially if they can’t figure things out with Adams. Allen Lazard is a restricted free agent and is probably facing either a 2nd round tender at $3.986 million or the lower right of first refusal tender of $2.433 million to come back on a oneyear deal. My gut says he gets the 2nd rounder but wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he is allowed to test free agency either.
Malik Taylor is an exclusive rights free agent and should return on a minimum contract for training camp. Amari Rodgers is the lone wide receiver on the roster under contract past this 2022 season and his rookie season left more questions than answers for the longterm future of the group.
The wide receiver corps is one I expect to look a lot different this season and is a critical need in the upcoming draft likely making several picks over the weekend.
Tight end
Under contract (4): Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis, Alizé Mack
Free agents (2): Robert Tonyan, Dominique Dafney (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: Lewis will be 38, but he’s holding off Father Time and is under contract at a reasonable enough price in 2022, creating a tough roster-building decision. Tonyan’s price likely dropped after he missed half the year to a significant knee injury, but he could still move on. Getting him back at a team-friendly price would be big. His receiving ability was missed over the second half of 2022. Even if Dafney is expected to be back,