Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Packer Plus
It’s worth adding extra depth, zing to pass rush
Green Bay — Lost in their disastrous home playoff defeat to the San Francisco 49ers in January was the Green Bay Packers’ pass rush that day.
With Za’Darius Smith back after missing essentially all season because of a back injury, the Packers showed signs of a formidable pass rush that could have carried their defense in the postseason.
Coordinator Joe Barry’s dime personnel against the 49ers featured four quality rushers in Za’Darius and Preston Smith, ascending Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark. They combined to sack Jimmy Garoppolo four times and pressure him (knockdowns and hurries) four others on only 23 drop-backs in that game, according to Pro Football Reference.
If the Packers had stayed alive they might have had something going defensively as Za’Darius Smith regained his game legs after a four-month post-surgery layoff.
That’s worth remembering heading into Thursday’s draft, because the Packers cut Za’Darius Smith in a cash- and cap-saving move this offseason. While they still have Preston Smith and Gary on the edge, they don’t have a third outside rusher worth making room for in the dime.
They’re also painfully thin behind those two. Aside from the damage an injury to Smith or Gary would inflict on Barry’s defense, outside rushers need occasional rest to be at their best when it’s needed most: late in games and late in the season.
As it stands now the Packers’ rush will take a big step back when any of their edge backups (Jonathan Garvin, LaDarius Hamilton, Tipa Galeai and Randy Ramsey) is on the field. That leaves general manager Brian Gutekunst very much in the market for a pass rusher in this draft, including in the first round, where he holds two picks (Nos. 22 and 28).
The three generally acknowledged top edge prospects will probably be long gone by the time Gutekunst picks at No. 22: Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, Georgia’s Travon Walker and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Following are thumbnail sketches of several other first-round prospects based on conversations with four NFL scouts:
Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (6-45⁄8, 254, 4.58 40)
Could be a top-15 pick but there’s always the chance he’s on the board until at least the late teens, which might put him in striking distance of a trade if Gutekunst likes him enough. Went from a rotational player at Georgia to full time after transferring to Florida State last season and put up 12 sacks and 18 tackles for a loss.
“Good player,” one scout said. “He’s not a speed rusher, he’s more a power guy, which may turn some teams off in terms of picking him that high. Plays hard, very strong, physical, ran really well. It was a surprise he tested as well as he did based on his game film, but then you go back and watch the game film and it’s like, ‘OK.’”
Has great length (6-95⁄8 wingspan) to go with prototypical height.
“I thought he has the best pure passrush skills out of all those guys,” another scout said of this year’s edge rushers. “He’s quick, he’s athletic, he’s got moves, he’s got variety. Pass rush isn’t just let me just run by you, that just doesn’t work. With him I see the counters, the second moves, the hands, the bend, the body control, the effort, the pursuit. I just love that about him. I’d think he’ll be long gone (by 22).”
George Karlaftis, Purdue (6-33⁄4, 266, 4.77)
Born in Greece, at age 13 moved to the United States with his American mother after his father died.
Had 141⁄2 sacks and 301⁄2 tackles for a loss in 27 games at Purdue. Likely to be taken in the late teens or early 20s of the first round.
“The testing numbers are not going to be great, great, great, but the play numbers and the tape are really, really good,” one scout said. “He’s a physical player, he’s relentless when he’s going after the ball, he’s relentless in the pocket. He forces turnovers, he’s super tough. If you want a guy that has fewer holes in him, he’s one of those guys. He’s very safe as a player.”
Played mostly as a standup edge but occasionally moved inside with his hand on the ground and could do the same in the NFL.
“He’s one I don’t see like everybody else,” another scout said. “He’s just kind of a big, lumbering — I see him as almost a 3-4 D-end. He’s not an edge guy by any stretch, doesn’t have much space athletic ability, quick speed out there. More of a plugger-type talent in my view.”
Probably better suited to be a 4-3 defensive end, though the same could be said for Gary, who nevertheless is a rising star while playing primarily outside in the Packers’ 3-4.
“This could be a guy that‘s 12 sacks, 10 sacks a year,” a third scout said. “But you’re going to get a player that’s going to give you everything he has. Might have a year where he breaks through like the (Trey) Hendrickson guy that went to Cincinnati from the Saints.”
Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State (6-23⁄8, 250, 4.65)
Transferred from Temple to Penn State last year and had 91⁄2 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss. High-motor player who began playing football his sophomore year in high school. Unlikely he’d be under consideration when the Packers pick at No. 22 but could be a possibility at 28.
“He’s one of my favorites as far as when I first started watching him,” one scout said. “I was like, man, this guy can play. He’s a presence, disrupts, plays hard, he’s quick, just gets around the ball. I like him. He could sneak into the bottom of the first.”
On the short side for an edge rusher but has great length (6-93⁄4 wingspan).
“I have a real problem with the Penn State kid,” another scout said. “Second round, actually I put him in the third. I just saw too much rawness, not always winning, some learning curve with him for sure.”
Said a third scout: “He’s not a big guy. That would be rich for him, first round, and I like the guy. But he’s a 240-pound edge guy. Solid second.”
Boye Mafe, Minnesota (6-33⁄4, 261, 4.53)
Had a career-high seven sacks last season, so not that productive a college player, but had the second-best Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of all the edge rushers in this draft, behind only Walker. RAS is a numerical composite to compare the athletic ability of all players by accounting for their height and weight relative to their performance on physical tests at the NFL scouting combine.
“He’s a height-weight-speed guy,” one scout said. “Explosive as hell. A little stiff, a little straight line, not real instinctive, but he’ll go pretty high.”
Poor defending the run and more of a developmental prospect.
“He’s got something to him, he could sneak into the bottom of the first,” another scout said. “Some explosiveness, he plays hard. His instincts are a little off right now, but he’s got a lot to work with.”
Said a third scout: “He’s got some boom or bust to him. He might have more boom than bust in my opinion. He’s relentless, and you talk about a guy with a first step. He’s powerful, he chases the ball, he’s a physical tackler. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went late 1. He’s a second round for me. He’s a good player, he really is.”
David Ojabo, Michigan (6-4, 250, 4.55)
Bookend rusher opposite Hutchinson last season, put up 11 sacks in his first season in the rotation. But tore his Achilles tendon at his pro day last month and figures to miss much or most of his rookie season.
Probably won’t get picked in the first round because of the injury, though a team with multiple first-rounders might take a shot with its extra pick if its late in the round.
“I’m going to let somebody else be a hero there,” one scout said of drafting Ojabo late in the first round. “You’re talking about an Achilles. He’s got to be able to explode. You’re not going to have him playing until 2024. He’s going to come back in ’23 and he’s OK, but those Achilles injuries are two-year injuries. Somebody’s going to get cute and say we’ll take him in the top of the second and hope for the best, I could see that. But picking him in the first round, I wouldn’t consider doing it.”
Said a second scout: “I’d think he’ll get pushed out of the first into the second. I wasn’t a huge fan anyway. He’s a parttime player there at Michigan. Against the run he’s a liability right now. As a pass-rush guy his whole game is just running by people, that doesn’t translate well to the NFL. A long way to go with him.”