Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Packer Plus
Packers good bet to pick DE or RB
Editor’s note: This column was published April 19, 1997. It was edited here for space.
Green Bay — As Super Bowl champions without an urgent need, the Green Bay Packers can afford to live a little dangerously today in the first three rounds of the National Football League draft.
Surveying their peers from the bottom rung, or 30th pick, of the first round, the Packers will seek to mesh value with need when it’s their turn to select between 4 and 4:30 p.m.
More than likely, their choice will come from two deep but not abundantly talented positions: defensive end and running back.
Yet general manager Ron Wolf cautioned not to discount virtually anybody anywhere.
“I think what will happen is we’re going to let the rest of the people make up our mind for us,” Wolf said. “I think there would be somebody that would drop to us that is a good player and a starting player.
“It may not be in the area we want but we’re going to take that player. We’re not deep enough where we can afford not to take a good player.”
Personnel executives believe that the drop-off of talent becomes striking after about 15 players. That accounts for the number of teams hoping to trade out of the first round to gain additional picks in the second and third rounds, when the ability levels of players are similar.
“We won’t go up,” Wolf said. “No way. No one’s called here.
“We’re obviously not going to get a person that can change the whole complexion of your team. But Brett Favre was a second-round draft choice. Mark Brunell was a fifth.”
Unless the Packers were to trade up into the top 10 for someone such as Virginia’s James Farrior, there is only a remote chance that they could fill their primary need at linebacker in the first round.
They could use a wide receiver but the first four will be long gone.
They would have an interest in a tight end but the best one, California’s Tony Gonzalez, is far beyond their reach.
They could use an offensive lineman with versatility but it’s unlikely that the second tier, including Oregon’s Paul Wiggins and Iowa’s Ross Verba, would appeal to them just one year after three of their first six picks were blockers.
They would like to have another quarterback but the list is thin and the need marginal.
They wouldn’t be opposed to selecting a cornerback for depth or a safety to groom behind Eugene Robinson, but with as many as eight defensive backs in line to be taken ahead of them, there won’t be much left.
Which leaves defensive end and running back.
The expected retirement of Sean Jones has made Gabe Wilkins the starting right end. Reggie White is 35, and Shannon Clavelle and Keith McKenzie are no more proven as backups than Wilkins is proven as a starter.
Clearly, the degree of need is greater at defensive end than running back, where Wolf rhapsodized last week about having prospects Calvin Jones, James Bostic, Travis Jervey and Chris Darkins behind co-starters Dorsey Levens and Edgar Bennett.
For that reason, it would appear that defensive end is the more likely of the two positions on which to spend a No. 1 pick.
Without question, the Packers would jump on the top end, Florida State’s Peter Boulware, and Notre Dame swing man Renaldo Wynn. But they will be gone.
Another defensive end from Florida State, Reinard Wilson, is a ferocious pass rusher and fierce competitor. He probably won’t be available, either, and because of the Packers’ preference for size, it is doubtful that they would pick him if he were.
That leaves six players regarded by many teams as having late first-round value. The list includes Kenard Lang and Kenny Holmes of Miami, Clemson’s Trevor Pryce, Columbia’s Marcellus Wiley, Akron’s Jason Taylor and Indiana’s Nathan Davis.
Lang, 6 feet 4 inches and 280 pounds, appears to have the best chance of becoming the Packers’ choice.
In Lang, the Packers would obtain a player who has started at left end since Game 4 of the 1994 season. He surprised many scouts by giving up his final season and declaring for the draft a year early.
Lang improved as a pass rusher in ‘96, registering 12 sacks after having had 12 in his first two seasons. He is solid if unspectacular in most categories, with the frame to carry 300 pounds and move to tackle.
Some scouts said they wished there was a senior season in which to evaluate Lang.
“He’s all right,” said Tom Donahoe, Pittsburgh’s director of football operations. “He’s got pass-rush ability. He’s got some thickness to him. Like a lot of juniors, he needed another year of development and technique work and try to get a little bit stronger and a little bit more mature.”
Despite the emergence of Levens late in the season, the reliability of Bennett and the promise of four young players, the Packers will think long and hard if one or both of the top running backs, Houston’s Antowain Smith or Florida State’s Warrick Dunn, should be available.
Smith (6-2, 224) has great speed (4.47) and power. Dunn (5-8, 179) runs 4.46, can cut on a dime and is a superb receiver.
The Packers prefer big running backs but Dunn is so special that he is meriting their consideration. Smith turned 25 in March and lacks Dunn’s impeccable credentials off the field, but his talent is unmistakable.
“If the Bills don’t take one I think Green Bay will get their choice of the running backs,” one scout said Friday.
The Bills, who pick 23rd, will consider Smith and Dunn but also have a hole they might elect to fill at right tackle.
McGinn’s NFL draft predictions
Journal Sentinel pro football writer Bob McGinn’s predictions for the first round of the National Football League draft today, including the teams, picks, position and college attended.
1. St. Louis-a: ORLANDO PACE, T, Ohio State - Not only doesn’t coach Dick Vermeil select the best player in the draft (it’s Darrell Russell) but he also passes up the best tackle (it’s Walter Jones).
2. Oakland-b: WALTER JONES, T, Florida State - The most fascinating prospect in the entire draft.
3. Seattle-c: SHAWN SPRINGS, CB, Ohio State - The Seahawks traded Rick Mirer and then traded up with Atlanta to get the player they coveted; no cornerback has ever been taken higher in the 30 years of the common draft.
4. Baltimore: PETER BOULWARE, DE, Florida State - Owner Art Modell expected to trade down, perhaps with Tampa Bay, because he can’t afford the $6 million to $7 million signing bonus.
5. Detroit: BRYANT WESTBROOK, CB, Texas - Russell has tons more value but the Lions’ secondary is a complete disaster area.
6. N.Y. Jets-d: DARRELL RUSSELL, DT, Southern California - Bill Parcells gets the same player he would have had with the No. 1 pick plus three extra picks from the trade-down with the Rams.
7. N.Y. Giants: JAMES FARRIOR, LB, Virginia - GM George Young and personnel director Tom Boisture usually prefer more size at the position; Farrior rates slight edge over Dwayne Rudd.
8. Tampa Bay: DWAYNE RUDD, LB, Alabama - The defensive stampede continues as the Buccaneers, if they don’t move up for Boulware, opt for one of the few remaining blue chips on defense rather than Yatil Green.
9. Arizona: Tom Knight, CB, Iowa The reliable Knight is the last elite defender left so the Cardinals bypass a wide receiver.
10. New Orleans-e: REIDEL ANTHONY, WR, Florida - Looking to trade down again for even more picks.
11. Atlanta-f: Tony Gonzalez, TE, California - Consolation prize after having lost out on all the linebackers and cornerbacks.
12. Seattle: YATIL GREEN, WR, Miami - Planning to trade down because middle linebacker is next highest need.
13. Houston: RAE CARRUTH, WR, Colorado - Oilers never dreamed he’d slip this far; if he doesn’t, they take Michael Booker or deal down.
14. Cincinnati: MICHAEL BOOKER, CB, Nebraska - Needs an outside linebacker even worse for switch to 3-4 defense but could ease its predicament by signing Green Bay free agent Wayne Simmons.
15. Miami: JAMIE SHARPER, LB, Virginia - Jimmy Johnson willing to trade up or down, or he might stand pat and just as easily select quarterback Jim Druckenmiller.
16. Tampa Bay-g: WARRICK DUNN, RB, Florida State - Do the Buccaneers take the big back, Antowain Smith, or the little back, Dunn? It’s a close call.
17. Washington: Reinard Wilson, DE, Florida State - Would like a defender to augment 28th-ranked defense but really wants to trade down.
18. Kansas City: IKE HILLIARD, WR, Florida - Hoped to land Gonzalez here; reloads by taking a desperately needed offensive weapon rather than tight end David LaFleur.
19. Indianapolis: TARIK GLENN, T, California - GM Bill Tobin must have an instant starter at left tackle and Jerry Wunsch is a right-side only player.
20. Minnesota: JERRY WUNSCH, G, Wisconsin - Strongly considers running backs Corey Dilland and Smith but picks up its next starting right guard.
21. Jacksonville: RENALDO WYNN, DT, Notre Dame - Tom Coughlin’s type of hard-effort player who will quickly displace either John Jurkovic or Don Davey.
22. Philadelphia: Trevor Pryce, DE, Clemson - Wanted Wynn; Pryce can handle power aspect of left end better than the pass-rushing Kenny Holmes.
23. Buffalo: ANTOWAIN SMITH, RB, Houston - If either Glenn or Dunn also is available, the Bills face a draft-day decision.
24. Pittsburgh: CHAD SCOTT, CB, Maryland - Stripped of cornerbacks in free agency, so takes the most physical one left.
25. Dallas: DAVID LAFLEUR, TE, Louisiana State - Although two scouts insisted late in the week that Syracuse defensive tackle Antonio Anderson would be the shocking selection.
26. San Francisco: SAM MADISON, CB, Louisville - Steve Mariucci might take Druckenmiller as the heir apparent to 35-year-old Steve Young.
27. Carolina: RICK TERRY, NT, North Carolina - Looking for a brawling defensive lineman to fit its 3-4 scheme.
28. Denver: CHRIS CANTY, CB, Kansas State - A cover cornerback with return ability for a team without a pressing need.
29. New England: MIKE LOGAN, CB, West Virginia - The record eighth cornerback taken; Dunn a possibility if he’s on the board.
30. Green Bay: KENARD LANG, DE, Miami - A bigger man who fits the Packers’ style of defense better than the slender Holmes, but if Dunn or Smith slip this far it’s 50-50 the Packers take a running back.
Key: a-From New York Jets; b-From New Orleans; c-From Atlanta; d-From St. Louis; e-From Oakland; f-From Chicago through Seattle; g-From San Diego