Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Packer Plus
Rodgers needs a new security blanket
Green Bay — In his fourth MVP season, Aaron Rodgers entered one of the NFL's most exclusive clubs last fall, a pantheon all-time greats Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Jim Brown never reached.
His reward will be maybe the most challenging season of his career.
For all his greatness, Rodgers has never won an MVP without a Pro Bowl receiver. The Green Bay Packers' record-breaking offense in 2011 featured Greg Jennings in his prime and Jordy Nelson's emergence as an elite wideout. Nelson was a secondteam All-Pro in 2014, Rodgers' second MVP year. Davante Adams was a firstteam All-Pro the past two seasons, when Rodgers became just the fifth player in NFL history to win consecutive MVPs.
That security blanket is vital for any quarterback. As the Packers enter training camp this month, they lack an established No. 1 receiver. It's the first time Rodgers hasn't had a go-to target since 2015, when Nelson tore his ACL during a preseason trip to Pittsburgh. Rodgers had a 92.7 passer rating that season, the worst of his career.
A great quarterback is known to make his receivers better. Rodgers might never be more tested in that theory than this fall.
Quarterback
Roster lock: Aaron Rodgers. On the bubble: Jordan Love. Long shot: Danny Etling.
Biggest offseason move
Even if the expiration date on Rodgers' career now amounts to an annual decision on whether he will or won't retire, the record extension he signed this spring removes doubt on whether that time will come in a Packers uniform. During minicamp, Rodgers said “yes, definitely” he plans to retire with the team that drafted him, a major change from a year ago. The friction between quarterback and front office has cooled, withstanding even Adams' trade to Las Vegas. Rodgers is now the highest-paid player in NFL history, becoming the first player to earn more than
$50 million annually on a contract that extends through 2026. Rodgers made clear he doesn't know if he'll play to the end of his contract, which would carry him through his age-43 season. His deal includes guaranteed money dependent on him playing pushed into future years, an unprecedented structure for a team known to guarantee only a signing bonus. Still, inking a quarterback to a record contract is a big move, especially when it avoids the type of Favre fracture that scarred the franchise in 2008.
Position battle
On the surface, the Packers' quarterback depth chart appears cemented weeks before general manager Brian Gutekunst submits his initial 53-man roster to the league. Rodgers is the starter, and Love will be his backup. Except, what if Love isn't his backup? Love has a big opportunity ahead of him this preseason, with Rodgers expected to yield perhaps all of his snaps to the young understudy. A strong preseason could rebuild Love's trade value that tanked with an unsuccessful introductory season in 2021. If Love performs well enough to become a
viable trade piece in late August, putting his flops in Kansas City and Detroit last season behind him, Gutekunst could have an opportunity to sell high on a former first-round investment. It wouldn't be an easy call. The Packers are intent on contending this season, and a quality backup quarterback is an important roster commodity. They won't find a better backup candidate on their roster or the open market than Love, both in talent and experience entering his third season in coach Matt LaFleur's system. But the balance of present and future is something every GM must weigh.
Keep an eye on
Father Time. He comes for everyone, no exceptions. Rodgers was at the top of his game these past two seasons, but his 2020 was unquestionably better than 2021. Rodgers had 11 fewer touchdown passes and 184 fewer passing yards in 2021 than the previous season. He completed 68.9% of his passes, down from a career-best 70.7%. His passer rating dropped 9.6 points. His numbers were still tremendous in 2021, good enough to earn MVP. Still, Rodgers knows his talent won't last forever. “It just comes down to where I'm at,” Rodgers said during minicamp. “Obviously, I want the team to be successful. Obviously, I don't want to be a bum standing back there, playing like crap and not able to move around. So when, if the talent goes, it's a no-brainer. But it's a little harder when you still can really play.” Entering his age-39 season, Rodgers can still really play. From here until the end of his career, a talent slippage will be worth keeping an eye on.
Key question
Entering his third season, it's time for Love to show who he's going to be as an NFL quarterback. Love has had two seasons to learn his offense. He has played extensively in two games, including one start. Love's 131 snaps last season were underwhelming. He was erratic as a passer, completing just 58.1% of his 62 attempts with two touchdowns, three interceptions and a 68.7 rating. He also struggled to diagnose before the snap, allowing the pass rush to affect him. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo exploited the young quarterback in his lone start, blitzing Love heavily. Those deficiencies could be part of growing pains, an unseasoned quarterback learning how to adapt to how quickly the game is played in the NFL. Or it could be signs of a bust. Love will go a long way toward answering which was the case last season in his third year.
Prediction
Rodgers won't join Favre by winning a record three straight MVPs, but he will be selected to the Pro Bowl for a fifth straight year. Even with a depleted receiving group, Rodgers has enough talent to shine in a conference lacking high-end quarterbacks. While a staunch defense should make the Packers one of the NFC's favorites, a strong run game and good fit in LaFleur's system are essential elements to overcome a gap in receiving talent. Ultimately, the lack of perimeter playmakers might be a flaw preventing the Packers from winning the Super Bowl, but it won't keep Rodgers from producing another quality season.