Former defense secretary William Perry discusses nuclear threats
As a kid growing up in Butler, William Perry used to deliver the now-defunct Pittsburgh Sun-Telegraph (“It was doing fine when I was there,” he said, upon learning it shuttered in 1960). A graduate of Carnegie Tech, he launched a career in military electronics and consulted on Russia’s nuclear intentions during the Cuban Missile Crisis. He later became President Bill Clinton’s secretary of defense, helping to secure nuclear weapons in the disintegrating Soviet Union.
But Mr. Perry worries that the use of nuclear weapons is more likely now than it was during the Cold War — even as Americans worry about it less. President-elect Donald Trump, for one, has spoken causally about nuclear proliferation and undertaking a new nuclear arms race.
So at age 89, he is once again spreading the news, warning of dangers all too familiar to Sun-Telly readers over a half-century ago. “When you live through a Cuban Missile Crisis up close,” he recently told the online magazine Politico, “you do understand how dangerous it is, and you believe you should do everything you could possibly do to [avoid] going back.”
Through his William J. Perry Project, Mr. Perry seeks to educate Americans about these threats, using online courses and a fiveminute video that imagines a terrorist cell detonating a nuclear bomb in Washington D.C., killing 80,000 people instantly and threatening the collapse of American society.
Obviously, there’s been a lot going on with Russia recently. Is that the most pressing threat?
There are two kinds of nuclear threats. One is a regional war or a terrorist attack, where a couple of bombs are set off. That I think is the most likely thing to happen, and it would be catastrophic. But while nuclear war with Russia is less likely, it would be the end of civilization.
Last summer you said you were “genuinely optimistic” the U.S. could avoid a military confrontation with China, despite disagreements over issues like the future of Taiwan. Are you still optimistic, given the exchanges between Mr. Trump and China on the issue?
I am less optimistic now. One reason for my optimism before was that we worked out a way of putting the Taiwan issue on the back burner ... as long as Taiwan kept a low profile. Now they are getting a higher profile
I don’t expect a nuclear conflict between the United States and China, but if there were one ... they’ve never advertised the number of nuclear weapons they have, but some experts say they have a couple hundred. That would be very close to civilization-ending. You’ve reportedly reached out to Mr. Trump to share your concerns. Have you met with his team, and are people in your circle alarmed by him?
I have not had any substantive discussions with Mr. Trump or his senior advisers. What I’ve gathered about him is what I see in the newspapers.
There’s a concern over some of the offhand comments that he’s made. Most people that I know at least are willing to believe that those comments don’t represent his policies, so we’re waiting to see what policies he actually enacts.
I’m really opposed to offhand comments on nuclear issues. I hope he is careful.
Mr. Trump has asked “wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along with Russia?” What’s your answer?
I do believe that [a relationship with Russia] is very important, because of their weapons, and because they are a large nation. I tend to support that part of Mr. Trump’s statement. On the other hand, Mr. [Vladimir] Putin is dealing in a very adversarial way with the United States.
… If I was in [Mr. Trump’s] position, I would start off on some easy cases, where we have mutual interests, like preventing nuclear terrorism, because a bomb could be set off in Moscow as easily as Washington.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, some military officers tried to push civilian leadership into a nuclear confrontation. Do you see a potential for that with today’s military leaders, or from Gen. James Mattis’ pending appointment as secretary of defense?
I’ve developed a very high respect for the military that I know now. Gen. Mattis has been a friend for many years, and one I know and respect. I don’t see warmongers at all among the military leadership. If anything, they may restrain civilian leadership.
You’ve said one reason these issues don’t get much traction is that younger Americans didn’t have to grow up doing duck-and-cover drills at school. Do you have to scare the hell out of people for them to take the nuclear threat seriously?
I’m afraid that’s right. I hate very much to be in a position of scaring people. I sort of joke about being a prophet of doom. … I don’t want to be unnecessarily alarmist about it: It has a very low probability of happening. But if it did, it would be catastrophic.
[Younger Americans] are well-educated, have great skills in communication, and are willing to take action. But on this issue, they don’t know anything about the problem. When they hear about it, they say, ‘Oh, my God.”
Until we get a large mass of people who are concerned, we won’t do anything successfully.
Well, I saw your video about terrorists building a bomb, flying it in from overseas, and then detonating it in Washington, D.C. It scared the bejeebers out of me.
We could make another one set in Pittsburgh.
Please don’t.