Stuck in Syria

U.S. forces are in middle of Turk-Kurd tension

There are still many questions pending — including the one of why the United States is involved — in the long, drawn-out campaign by various forces to take Raqqa, considered the Islamic State capital, in the interior of Syria.

Hundreds of U.S. Special Forces are engaged in the campaign, in principle training Kurdish forces in Syria. But at least part of the time, they are keeping Turkish and Turkish-backed forces from attacking the Kurds.

The Trump administration is either letting the Obama policy in Syria continue to be pursued or is itself hoping for at least a symbolic victory over IS in Raqqa, to justify some of the downsides of U.S. engagement in the multi-sided Syrian conflict.

One problem is that U.S. training and logistical support is going to the Kurds, the sworn enemy of NATO ally Turkey. The Turks are in no sense prepared to see the Kurds install themselves in Raqqa, 68 miles from the Turkish border. American forces claim that the Kurdish forces are the most effective local combatants in the struggle to take Raqqa as the justification for U.S. aid to them.

Another problem follows from the first. Who will, in effect, take over the governance of Raqqa and its surrounding area if IS is driven out? In addition to the Turkey-vs.-the-Kurds issue, there will also be large, expensive humanitarian needs to be met. Raqqa is in the middle of territory that is still jurisdictionally part of a Syria ruled by President Bashar Assad, who is backed by Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. That is relevant to the question of into whose hands ex-IS Raqqa passes, if the attacking forces succeed, a not-yet foregone conclusion.

Given the fact that pieces of Syria are still in the hands of various ethnic and religious-based militias, as well as the Assad government, it is difficult to say that his government has won the now six-year civil and international war. Nonetheless, it probably has, in defiance of the will of Mr. Obama’s government and a number of other parties. Evidence of this is that the Arab League summit underway in Jordan is considering readmitting Syria as a full member of the AL, after having been suspended from the group in 2011.

In terms of Mideast pushing and pulling, the victors are Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime. The U.S. is left with the Kurds and a ragtag group of Syrian opposition groups, not much of a consolation prize nor much more than America started with when the Syrian war began. A good estimate of what the affair has cost in terms of cash as well as prestige is lacking. So is a comprehensive Trump administration review of U.S. Mideast policy.