A French surprise

Centrist Macron surges, but don’t dismiss Le Pen

French voters handed everyone something of a surprise on Sunday in voting for Emmanuel Macron first, and Marine Le Pen second, into the May 7 runoff election.

Mr. Macron received 24 percent of the votes; Ms. Le Pen, 21.3 percent. There were two surprises. The first was that advance polling and many prognosticators said that Ms. Le Pen would finish first and Mr. Macron second among the 11 candidates. (Voter turnout was 77.8 percent, high by U.S. standards but a bit lower than in 2012.) The second, probably more stunning result overall was that both of France’s main traditional parties, the Republicans and the Socialists, in the running in presidential races for about 60 years now, did not finish in the top two. It was one more sign that political elites around the world are out of step with voters and what they consider pressing issues of the day.

The Republican candidate, Francois Fillon, received 20 percent of the vote, doomed by his somewhat grim mien as well as shady behavior in his record. The far-left firebrand JeanLuc Melenchon racked up 19.6 percent, a strong showing as he surged late in the campaign. The Socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, received a scant 6.4 percent, probably based on what the French consider to have been the miserable performance of the current Socialist president, Francois Hollande, commonly known by his critics as “Nul” (“zero”).

The final outcome remains unknown, although the center-right and center-left leadership of French politics is already urging the electorate to cluster around and vote in two weeks for Mr. Macron, rather than for the still extreme-right Ms. Le Pen. It is important not to count her out, considering the volatility of the French electorate and the National Front’s presence in local governments throughout the nation.

It remains unclear whether Ms. Le Pen has performed a true makeover of the National Front. The party has years of xenophobic, anti-immigration, anti-Semitic and other racist behavior and rhetoric to overcome, in spite of Ms. Le Pen’s purging the party’s founder (her father, JeanMarie Le Pen).

The results again show the shortcomings of polling; increasingly, it seems, voters are reluctant to speak candidly, perhaps for fear they will be cast as backward for favoring one candidate or another.

There is also the question of French parliamentary elections in June. The experience of both British Prime Minister Theresa May and President Donald Trump underlines the importance — probably, the necessity — of a compliant legislature in putting a program into effect. Mr. Macron’s party, En Marche!, was founded just one year ago; the National Front has just two seats in the 577-member National Assembly.

It will be comforting to Europe if Mr. Macron wins. Brexit in the United Kingdom and Ms. Le Pen’s hints of a possible “Frexit” have rattled not only Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany, who faces elections herself in the fall, but also those viewing a possible collapse of the EU with alarm in this year of the 100th anniversaries of World War I and the impact of wars on European peace and prosperity.