Big sky issues
The GOP should not feel confident with this Montana victory
Asigh of relief for the Republican Party came last week in Montana. In the special House election to replace Republican Ryan Zinke — named by President Donald Trump to head the Department of the Interior — Republican Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Rob Quist by a fairly comfortable margin. Montana is generally a Republican state, so Mr. Gianforte should have won easily — and, indeed, it seems as though national Democrats agreed, for they mostly ignored Mr. Quist until the very end.
Partisanship aside, the better person did not win this contest. The night before Election Day, Mr. Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault against Ben Jacobs, a reporter for The Guardian. From firsthand reports as well as Mr. Jacobs’ audio recording of the incident, it appears that Mr. Gianforte lost his temper when Mr. Jacobs asked him an anodyne question about health care, then attacked him. Three Montana newspapers withdrew their endorsements of Mr. Gianforte, but the incident happened too late in the campaign to be decisive. About 28 percent of the votes had already been cast in early voting.
From a political standpoint, Montanais sort of a “canary in the coal mine” state for the Republican Party: National Democrats can win here when Republicans are in trouble. In the 2006 Senate election, Democrat Jon Tester narrowly defeated Republican Conrad Burns, who had been involved with crooked lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In 2008, Barack Obama came within 12,000 votes of defeating John McCain inthe presidential election.
A surprise Quist victory might have served as a force multiplier for grass-roots Democratic enthusiasm. Top-notch Democratic recruits who otherwise might not have run would have been more willing to toss their hats into the ring, figuring that 2018 would be the best chance they have to win. Meanwhile, quality GOP challengers would perhaps decide to sit 2018 out, while incumbent Republicans — particularly in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton — may have mulled retirement.
Special elections, of course, are quirky. Turnout is low and local factors can be of outsized importance, so they should never be viewed in isolation. The broader picture of the electoral landscape strongly suggests a Republican Party in trouble.
The GOP candidate struggled in a special House election in Kansas, and polls show that President Donald Trump is increasingly unpopular. Voters are unhappy with the Republican alternative to Obamacare, and generally remain sour on the congressional GOP. Democratic recruitment for the House is robust so far, although it is still early in this cycle. Moreover, the Democratic candidate in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District — in the Republican Atlanta suburbs — appears to be primed for a special election victory next month. The national Democratic Party has heavily invested in this race, and for good reason, as Mr. Trump barely defeated Ms. Clinton there.
Importantly, it would not take a huge electoral wave to turn the GOP out of the House — just 24 seats would have to flip from Republican to Democrat. In 2006, the Democrats needed 15 seats to take over Congress, and they picked up 30. At the time, President George W. Bush’s job approval on Election Day 2006 was roughly 39 percent — close to where Mr. Trump is today.
What is so frustrating for conservatives is that the GOP’s wounds are largely self-inflicted. The country is enjoying a bout of relative peace and prosperity. This should be a moment for Republicans to settle into the business of governing, but the president seems insistent on stirring up trouble. What should be a time to reform the tax code and replace Obamacare has instead been one of needless tumult, with a seemingly endless parade of negative stories sapping Republican energy and invigorating Democrats. It does not have to be this way, but the president and his Republican allies in Congress need to get their acts together.
Conservatives should hope that Republicans do not take the Montana win as a reason to stay the course. Their majority is in a precarious position, and it is not hard to imagine Nancy Pelosi again wielding the speaker’s gavel in January 2019.