Experts, heal thyselves
If they don’t want populist revolt, they must do a better job
Last week the Census Bureau reported that median incomes rose briskly in 2016, to roughly $59,000, which follows another brisk increase in 2015. This is good news for American pocketbooks, but there was a sobering milestone in the data. Median income only just returned to the inflation-adjusted level it reached in 1999, meaning it has taken the average family nearly 20 years to get back to where they were when “Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?” first premiered.
When I look at numbers like these, which illustrate the scope of our economic stagnation, I see a major reason for the breakdown of the national political consensus.
Some historical context is important. In the early 20th century, a great bargain was struck between the citizenry and policy experts. The people would delegate authority to experts to make complex technical decisions, and in exchange the elites would guide the nation toward greater prosperity. We take this for granted nowadays, but compared to the 19th century — when political machines often twisted the purpose of government to their own ends — it was quite a sea change.
Judged on the whole, the deal has been very beneficial. For instance, thanks to the interventions of central banks, recessions are less frequent and much milder now than they used to be. Moreover, the expertise built into the regulatory state has enabled us to balance economic growth and environmental stewardship much better than we did in the 19th century. Yet judged on the basis of the last 20 or so years, the track record of the experts is awfully shabby.
By contemporary standards, the political debate of 2000 looks very quaint. With unemployment at unprecedented lows, peace and prosperity abounding, and a Treasury overflowing with cash, Al Gore and George W. Bush mainly disagreed on how to spend a budget surplus. Since then, we have had economic crises and stagnation, terrorist attacks followed by interminable wars, and a public debt at $20 trillion and still growing.
On all these matters, the experts have been first surprised, then confounded. They did not see the catastrophes coming and have been unsure of what to do next. And this failure is not exclusive to one party. Since 2000, the people have tried all manner of partisan arrangements: total Republican control of government, total Democratic control and split control. This is a reason the middle ground in American politics has given way to the right-wing populism of Donald Trump and the left-wing populism of Bernie Sanders. That essential bargain between citizen and specialist, which anchored civil society for more than a century, does not seem as appealing anymore.
And yet populism has limitations. Mr. Trump’s campaign was fueled by populist anger, but so far he has shown himself unable to bring about the change he promised. Mr. Sanders, meanwhile, is hawking single-payer health, though he has not the foggiest clue how to pay for it.
Populist frustration, sympathetic as it may be, is not by itself a positive program of governance. The two times in American history when populism really did seem to thrive were moments when it was wedded to an already existing political establishment. Andrew Jackson won a resounding victory in 1828, but needed the craft and guile of Martin Van Buren to govern. Franklin Roosevelt promised a New Deal, then proceeded to bring in the old progressives who supported his cousin Teddy to hammer out the details.
And yet, who can blame the populists? Our experts today seem as arrogant as they do incompetent. They cannot predict the future or manage the present, but they still roll their eyes at anybody who went to a state school rather than the Ivy League.
At its most effective, populism is a force to temper the hubris of the experts. If the graybeards of Washington, D.C., are so distraught by the populist fire that has been sweeping the land, they need to figure out how to secure and extend this economic growth spell we have lately enjoyed. Otherwise, what good are they?