Kurds deserve independence
But they pushed too far with their referendum; the time is not yet ripe
After centuries of being ruled by others, the Middle East’s 30 million Kurds deserve a country of their own. It is just as certain that neither the Kurds nor their neighbors are ready for it.
That is the unsatisfying reality revealed by the reaction to the overwhelming vote last week in favor of independence in Iraq’s Kurdish region. Iran, Iraq and Turkey have shut off flights into Kurdish areas, clamped down on trade and threatened military action should the Kurdish leadership declareindependence.
A nascent nation that is landlocked and at virtual war with its neighbors is likely to be strangled in the crib. The Kurds have oil, but that matters little if there is noway to export it. The international community would have to keep the Kurds on welfare indefinitely, or they likely would turn to smuggling operations run by terrorist groups.
Kurdishareas also depend on water-sharing agreements with neighboring nations. There are many nonKurds in the ostensible new nation and disagreement as to where to draw its borders. The regional Kurdish government is heavily indebted. Rival Kurdish factions could return to violent confrontation, as in the 1990s.
Independence would no doubt inflame secession movements in Iran and Turkey, where advocates for Kurdish separatism routinely are met with brutal military force. If Syria’s Kurds attempted to join the new state next door, it would make it that much harder to end its civil war. And how could a post-Islamic-State Iraq mend itself and make peace among its ethnic and religious factions if 20 percent of its territory and populationhave seceded?
The Kurds do, however, deserve U.S. support. They have been America’s staunchest ally in the Middle East, excepting Israel. Under the protection of a U.S. no-fly zone, they pieced together a functional, autonomously governed region until Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003. And in the fight against the Islamic State group, they and their brethren from Syria have been the U.S.’s mosteffective proxy forces.
Yet statehood is not achievedmerely as the result of good behavior. Nor do appeals to justice and fairness by themselves end crises. They have to be dealt with pragmatically.
The U.S. now should help Iraqi Kurds get a fair deal in a loosely federalized Iraq, one that would ensure their political autonomy, a better revenue-sharing agreement on oil exports and a shared role in national defense and foreign policy. But for the time being, the dream of Kurdish nationhood must remain just that.