Bats, swings factor into homer surge
which are hand-stitched in Costa Rica. “The baseball in use today tests well within the established guidelines on every key performance metric,” the memo’s summary read. “Furthermore, there is no evidence that the composition of the ball has changed in any way that would lead to a meaningful impact on on-field play.”
Commissioner Rob Manfred reiterated that during the World Series, telling reporters, “I’m absolutely confident that the balls that we’re using are within our established specifications.”
Balls must weigh between five and 5¼ ounces and have a circumference between nine and 9¼ inches. Some players noticed a difference in the way the ball felt.
“It just feels wound tighter, the seams feel tighter,” Daniel Hudson said. “It’s weird. Some balls I feel like they’re higher off the ball and some balls you don’t feel the seam at all. They definitely feel like they’re tighter. We had a [former commissioner] Bud Selig ball in here and the difference in the two is night and day. Just by looking at it, you could tell which ball is which.
“Jamo’s [Jameson Taillon] never had a blister before in his life; he’s been fighting one all year, under his fingernail. There’s a lot of guys that are having that issue and never had the issue before. That really only points to one thing, and that’s the baseball.”
Other pitchers noticed the ball flying on pitches it usually didn’t, off the bats of hitters it usually didn’t.
“There have been a lot of home runs that have gone out on pretty good pitches, which is interesting to me,” Taillon said.
So we have pitchers complaining about a possible difference, and the commissioner’s office assuring teams the balls are within specifications. Hardly proof. But two independent studies, one conducted by The Ringer (quick version: game-used balls purchased on eBay were measured and shot out of a cannon) and Five Thirty Eight (which used Pitch F/X data to calculate the drag coefficient of pitches) both pointed to a change in the ball.
“I think the drag component is interesting, because I don’t know if physically the core of the ball or the yarn is any harder, but if the seams are lower, it would seem that it would create less drag when it was trying to fly, and it would drag less on the way to the plate as well,” said Gerrit Cole, who noted he had seen studies on the ball but not that one.
The concept of launch angle — swinging with an uppercut to drive a ball hard over the heads of shifted infielders — has been around forever. Ted Williams wrote about it in “The Science of Hitting,” which came out in 1971. But now we have Statcast, which lets us measure it precisely, and success stories about converts like Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez and Josh Donaldson. But the bats fly under the radar a bit.
In 2008, MLB tightened the restrictions on the slope of the grain in maple bats to reduce the incidences of broken bats hurting field personnel or fans. The quality of bats has increased since.
“Sometimes it used to be, out of six bats you might have one or two that are really hard and the other ones that aren’t as hard,” Andrew McCutchen said. “You’re getting harder bats and not so many bad batches. Just more consistent.”
So why might GMs and owners talk about the issue? Who doesn’t like home runs? There’s a reason Nike produced the “Chicks dig the long ball” commercial in 1998.
Home runs lead to trots around the bases, mound visits, pitching changes and walks. Those things make games longer and slower, something Manfred wants to change.
“I’ve said from Day 1, they’re making such a fuss about pace of play, and they’re doing all this stuff to try to make the game shorter, and they want more offense,” Hudson said. “The two don’t go hand in hand.”
GMs might want to know, as they construct their rosters, if this is the new normal or a blip. Will the slugger they sign who hit 30 homers in 2017 hit 17 next year? They could also target pitchers who possess the weapons to combat the home-run increase.
The surge in home runs could have an effect off the field, too. MLB salaries, especially those determined by arbitration, are comparison-based, building off the salaries players of similar age and performance level negotiated and agreed to. Statistics such as Fielding Indepenedent Pitching, which attempt to strip out the effect of defense in determining a pitcher’s true production, rely heavily on home runs.
“I’m all for getting people interested in the game,” Hudson said. “If you want to add more offense, that’s fine, if you want to bring the strike zone up, that’s fine, if you want to juice the balls, whatever. But it’s going to start affecting guys’ paychecks in the end.”