Pitt learning to win by tighter margins
reality — not only because it has an overhauled roster, but also because of the results that often come with that level of turnover. A program that has long been accustomed to almost predestined blowouts against noname opponents from littleknown conferences is in the process of adjusting to tighter margins of victory.
Over the past 15 years, the Panthers never finished the non-conference portion of their schedule with an average margin of victory fewer than 5.6 points against Division I opponents from outside the six major conferences —– ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC. That low mark came in 2016, Stallings’ first season at the school. Before that, the lowest margin was 8.3 points per game (in 2014). In the other 13 seasons, Pitt won such contests by no fewer than 12 points per game, with seven of those years coming with a mark of 20 points per game or more. Those lopsided point differentials partially were due to some notoriously easy non-league schedules compiled by former coach Jamie Dixon, as Pitt never ranked among the top 230 of 351 Division I teams in non-conference strength of schedule in his final seven seasons at the school.
This season, through only three games, its point differential is negative-2, with a nine-point loss to Navy, a five-point loss to Montana and an eight-point win against UC-Santa Barbara. In those games, Pitt led for 24:36 of a possible 120 minutes and in the win Wednesday against the Gauchos, it led for just 6:58.
Part of that speaks to a team that had a combined three career starts coming into the season, but also a coach charged with finding the most effective on-court combinations among that slew of newcomers. At the very least, Stallings likes the mental makeup of the players on his team, which should help it as it tries to persevere in closely contested matchups.
“It goes back to their character and their coachability,” he said. “They try their butts off to do what we ask, so if they do, we’ll keep getting better. I thought we made some progress [Wednesday]. We’ve started some different lineups. I’m trying to figure out who we are, what our best approach is, and what you get with freshmen is one night a guy’s feeling it and another night he might not be or whatever. But they have character, that I’m certain of. I can work with that.”
As players gain more experience, wins theoretically could become more decisive. Such progress, though, isn’t guaranteed, nor are the results that come with that improvement. While Ken Pomeroy’s statistical model has the Panthers going 7-2 over their next nine games, only three of their wins are projected to come by 10 points or more.
In the final five minutes of its first three games, including the overtime period against Montana, Pitt has made only 12 of its 33 field goals (36.4 percent) and a more respectable 9 of 14 free throws (64.3 percent). In the win against UC-Santa Barbara, that free throw percentage was considerably better, as it made 7 of 8 to secure its first victory.
What Stallings sees from his team in those close, lategame situations will define not only how they fare in non-conference play this season, but it might help determine the ultimate direction of a program and its 11player recruiting class.
“If we win, we’re probably going to win a lot of close ones … when we win,” Stallings said. “So we have to be exceptional at the end of games relative to our execution, making our free throws, taking care of the ball, securing rebounds and things like that. I thought when we got it into that position, it looked like we knew what to do, and I was kind of proud of that.”