After Alabama loss, Trump has ambitious plans to campaign in ’18 midterm elections
Strategy comes with inherent risk
President Donald Trump is not on the ballot in 2018, but the White House is planning a full-throttle campaign to plunge the president into the midterm elections, according to senior officials and advisers familiar with the planning.
Mr. Trump’s political aides have met with 116 candidates for office in recent months, according to senior White House officials, seeking to become involved in Senate, House and gubernatorial races — and possibly contested Republican primaries as well.
The president has told advisers he wants to travel extensively and hold rallies and that he is looking forward to spending much of 2018 campaigning. He has also told aides that the election would largely determine what he can get done — and that he expects he would be blamed for losses, such as last week’s humiliating defeat that handed an Alabama Senate seat to a Democrat for the first time in 25 years.
“For the president, this isn’t about adulation and cheering crowds,” White House political director Bill Stepien said in an interview. “This is about electing and re-electing Republicans.”
But getting deeply involved in the midterms could be a highly risky strategy for a president with historically low approval ratings, now hovering in the mid- to low-30s in many national polls, and might be particularly disruptive in primary contests pitting establishment candidates against pro-Trump insurgents. Last week’s upset in Alabama — where Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican nominee Roy Moore — came after Mr. Trump endorsed two losing candidates in both the primary and special election.
Many Democrats also say they relish the idea of being able to run against Mr. Trump.
“He absolutely is turbocharging the opposition. My guess is most of the people running for office in 2018 are not going to want to cleave too closely to him,” said David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama’s chief strategist. “He torques up both sides, but he torques up the opposition more. He is the greatest organizing tool that Democrats could have.”
Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors’ Association, said “we look forward to everything that comes out of the president’s iPhone.”
In coming months, Mr. Stepien is planning nearly daily meetings with potential candidates from around the country and aims to give Trump endorsement recommendations by the spring, officials said. The White House also is working with the Republican National Committee to discuss the strongest fundraising opportunities for Mr. Trump, they said.
Mr. Stepien meets with Mr. Trump weekly to talk about the 2018 slate, poll numbers, candidates, their issues and their level of agreement with Mr. Trump, and he also regularly convenes with Chief of Staff John Kelly and other senior aides on the midterm outlook, officials said. Mr. Trump, senior officials said, has shown particular interest in certain races, including Republican senatorial candidate Josh Hawley in Missouri and the possibilities of Senate bids by Gov. Rick Scott of Florida and Gov. Paul LePage of Maine.
On Saturday, Mr. Trump’s campaign sent out a “2018 candidates” survey to supporters on issues ranging from abortion to gun rights to Mr. Trump’s call for a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
But fundraising has been hurt in some quarters under Mr. Trump’s presidency, posing a financial challenge for a party increasingly spread thin in defending potentially vulnerable seats in the House and Senate. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, for example, has only raised about $2 million a month for the last four months and is spending more money than it is taking in. The White House has grown concerned about the anemic fundraising, according to one political adviser; committee officials declined to comment.
Mr. Trump himself has proven a prodigious fundraiser when he wants to do it, and advisers say he may share his valuable donor and supporter database with favored candidates.
There are other risks for Mr. Trump on the campaign trail. The president frequently wanders off topic at rallies and often prefers to talk about himself, sometimes generating new controversies and making the candidate a sideshow at best. But the president can also draw a crowd like few other Republicans can.
Mr. Trump’s political team downplays popularity concerns and says candidates are lining up to get in the door, particularly for GOP primaries.
“To say the president has shaky political standing, I’d say the pollsters, the experts, the pundits have never figured out how to poll this guy,” Mr. Stepien said. “You look at public polling —we have our own numbers that I trust because the experts don’t know how to poll him. They never have.”
Former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon remains another wild card as he pledges to continue backing anti-establishment candidates like Mr. Moore. In Nevada, for example, Mr. Bannon has told others he will help raise money for Danny Tarkanian, an insurgent candidate with a controversial past planning to challenge Republican Sen. Dean Heller, while Mr. Trump has yet to make a commitment. Mr. Bannon also wants to back Chris McDaniel for Senate if he runs in Mississippi, while Mr. Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., support Republican Sen. Roger Wicker.
Mr. Bannon’s rift with Mr. McConnell is particularly treacherous for Mr. Trump, who is expected to try to thread the needle and could make it more difficult to recruit establishment candidates.
Democrats have been watching the Republican infighting from the sidelines with rising hope that Mr. Trump’s approach will play into their hands next year.
“They are mixing a very risky cocktail, where they are alienating suburban voters at the same time that they are motivating progressives and people of color,” said Joel Benenson, who served as the top pollster for former President Obama and continues to work on Democratic campaigns.
Still, some Republicans say they have recently seen improved communications with the White House. Mr. Trump has patched up his fractious relationship with Mr. McConnell for the most part, advisers say.
“In a challenging midterm, a split within the party is deadly. Everything other than internal consensus is totally irrelevant,” said Josh Holmes, a top McConnell adviser. “I think there are some improved communications between the White House and political entities related to 2018.”
The White House plans to send surveys to candidates across the country to complete — an audition of sorts for Mr. Trump’s endorsement gauging their views on issues like immigration and health care. They also are asking potential candidates for internal polling and fundraising numbers and to secure petition signatures.
In 2018 governor’s races, the White House is particularly interested in three states that will be battlegrounds in 2020: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, advisers said.
Mr. Trump is expected to start meeting regularly with candidates in the next month, including Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., who he wants to run for Senate against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D. The president’s team already has met with Josh Mandel, the Ohio treasurer running for Senate; Paul Mango, a gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania; and Troy Downing, a Senate candidate from Montana.
In Pennsylvania, the White House has begun planning for a special House election to replace former Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned amid a personal scandal in October. Cabinet secretaries are expected to fly into the area for events. A senior White House official said a Trump visit also is possible.