Bankrolling Jordan
A Middle East ally gets big bump in U.S. aid
In February, with the signature by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on a memorandum of understanding, Jordan became the fourth-largest recipient of United States overseas aid, with $1.3 billion per year.
It follows Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel and precedes Egypt among the top five U.S. aid recipients in the world.
The answer to “why?” in Jordan’s case is the same as in the real estate business: location, location, location. Jordan has borders with Israel, Palestine’s West Bank, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. It also hosts an estimated 4 million refugees, including 2.1 million Palestinians and 1.4 million Syrians. The total population is nearly 10 million — do the math, and realize the demographic reality.
A constitutional monarchy, Jordan is badly governed by its king, Abdullah II, and the royal family. A prime minister leads the government but is closely responsible to the king. Jordan has an estimated 50 political parties. It has experienced six Cabinet reshuffles in the past two years. The economy is weak. The nation’s debt is enormous for its size. Debt service amounts to $1.3 billion a year, 11 percent of its spending, close to what it receives annually from America, a substantial amount of which goes to support the numerous royal family members.
The new five-year U.S. agreement brings Jordan $6.4 billion, which runs $275 million per year over the previous agreement. That also provided it another $1.5 billion over the past three years for special projects, including U.S.-provided loan guarantees that cost more than $400 million. One can assume that the United States does not provide such substantial aid merely on the basis of enduring friendship. In return for the aid, Jordan doesn’t bother Israel, nor does it let anyone, including the Palestinians on its soil, bother Israel. It soaks up many of the refugees set adrift by the region’s numerous wars.
Jordan did not support President Donald Trump’s decision recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and continues to favor a two-state, Israel-Palestine resolution of the conflict over land between them. Jordan’s population is estimated to be 97 percent Sunni Muslim and in Middle East conflicts it tends to line up with the other Sunni-ruled states, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Persian Gulf Emirates, as opposed to Shiite Muslim Iran.
Whether the substantial U.S. aid to Jordan constitutes good value for the American taxpayer is a hard question to evaluate. Jordan can be seen as an anchor, or as an expensive, unnecessary luxury. Whichever it is, absent the United States’ reneging on its new agreement, Jordan is nicely set in terms of U.S. aid for the next five years.